CAREER: Scale-independent Measures and Prediction of Space Weather

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This project combines research on the statistical nature and prediction of magnetic storms with educational components for both university students and K-12 teachers. Existing storm prediction systems do a good job on global scales but do not account for local variability. An understanding of local variations is particularly important since coupling of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system produces geospace and ground magnetic variations that depend on both local time and latitude. Several different subtopics will be examined: (1) fractal and multi-fractal characteristics of ground-based magnetometer time-series; (2) determination of characteristic differences in the scaling behavior between non-storm time and storm time dynamics; (3) the spatiotemporal statistical variations, from spatially separated magnetometers, as a function of proximity to a magnetic storm. For problem (1) the analysis techniques will include mono-fractal rescaled range, detrended fluctuation, and multi-fractal wavelet analyses. These approaches are appropriate since they take into account the very high resolution of magnetometer measurements, and also the intermittent, non-Gaussian, and nonstationary character of these data. For problem (2), analyses will be performed in terms of storm phases. This will develop methods to determine storm onsets via variations in nonlinear statistics. Problem (3) will provide a way to extend storm predictions to locations where there are no observing stations, and to paint a picture of overall (ground-based) storm behavior.The educational initiatives will include the TEACHSPACE and Project LAUNCH programs. These programs address the need to increase interest in science and engineering education, but also the disparity in mathematics and science achievement in minority and traditionally underserved students. The project will focus on workshops for K-12 teachers. The P.I. will be involved in the delivery of workshops and lectures on space science, and development of laboratory experiments and instructional materials.