Phenological coupling and decoupling in a mutualism: Temperature effects on a bark beetle host and two fungal symbionts

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。互惠是生态系统结构和功能的重要驱动力，但很少有人知道它们的稳定性如何受到环境变化的影响。山松甲虫（Dendroctonus ponderosae）具有两种真菌共生体（Ophiostoma montium和Grosmannia clavigera），这两种真菌共生体提供了对甲虫的生长和繁殖至关重要的道路资源。这两种真菌具有不同的热生长范围，使甲虫能够栖息在更广泛的栖息地，支持至少一种真菌物种。然而，由于气候变化引起的变暖可能会使这些互惠关系脱钩，因为真菌或甲虫的分布会随着温度的变化而变化。温度驱动的发育模型将开发两种真菌，然后耦合到现有的MPB模型。总之，这些模型将用于预测两种真菌与其甲虫宿主在不同温度下的流行情况，从而更现实地预测气候变化将如何影响这种重要昆虫的未来分布。除了产生对森林资源管理人员有用的信息外，两名研究生和三名本科生还将接受生物学方面的培训。推广到流行的观众将促进通信研究生在UM和USU.中学教育推广的数学同步课程将由数学教育毕业生和犹他州中学教师开发，并基于项目的教育模块将在中学后一级开发和实施。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Mutualisms are important drivers of ecosystem structure and function but little is known about how their stability may be influenced by changes in the environment. The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) has two fungal symbionts (Ophiostoma montium, Grosmannia clavigera) that provide rood resources that are critical for growth and reproduction of the beetle. The two fungi possess different thermal growth ranges, allowing the beetle to inhabit a broader range of habitats that support at least one of the fungus species. However, warming due to climate change is likely to decouple these mutualisms as the distribution of the fungi or the beetle shift with changes in temperature. Temperature-driven developmental models will be developed for the two fungi and then coupled to an existing MPB model. Together, these models will be used to predict prevalence of the two fungi with their beetle host under differing temperature regimes allowing a more realistic prediction of how climate change will affect future distributions of this important insect. In addition to generating information that will be useful for forest resource managers, two graduate and three undergraduate students will receive mathematically-driven biological training. Outreach to popular audiences will be facilitated by communications graduate students at UM and USU. Lessons on mathematical synchrony for secondary education outreach will be developed by math education graduates and Utah secondary teachers, and project-based educational modules will be developed and implemented at the post-secondary level.