Collaborative Research: Spatial Analytical Framework for Examining Community Risk Issues over Space and Time

该奖项根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)提供资金。在全国范围内可见的被定罪罪犯在被释放到社区后重新从事犯罪活动的案例促使州和联邦立法者和当地社区关注罪犯构成的公共安全风险以及应对这一独特群体的最适当手段。对被定罪罪犯的监测和管理是美国的一项主要政策考虑。许多联邦和州的法规要求社区追踪那些被判犯有某些罪行的人，在某些情况下，他们在从一个地方搬到另一个地方的过程中，一生都在追踪他们。地方司法机构还延长了联邦政府对被定罪罪犯的这些要求，颁布了越来越严厉的法令，禁止罪犯在特定地点的指定距离内居住，并实施分散和饱和法规，限制居住在社区或当地的罪犯数量。这一合作研究项目将：(1)制定一个处理罪犯问题的空间分析框架；(2)为适当使用和说明处理各种情况的方法，包括推理和优化方法，制定准则；(3)开发反映公共政策的优化模型，从而能够评估替代政策情景的空间影响；(4)制定时空方法，以评估罪犯居住地的变化；以及(5)解释调查结果，以便更好地为公共政策和惩戒做法提供立法影响、社区通知和罪犯重返社会方面的信息。调查人员首先将重点放在俄亥俄州汉密尔顿县的一个案例研究上，致力于完善一个空间分析框架，该框架将确定适当的方法，解决规范问题，开发新方法，并在公共政策和纠正方面提供解释。该项目将开发一个空间分析框架和工具箱，以解决被判有罪的罪犯居住问题。这将便利利用新的和现有的探索性和验证性统计方法以及新的和现有的空间优化模型，这些模型可用于分析影响以及制定和评价与被定罪罪犯管理有关的公共政策。空间分析框架和工具箱将能够对社会影响、聚集性和犯罪者居住地流动进行时空分析和地理可视化，并提供审查居住地选择因素的能力。为确定罪犯的时空流动以及与现有或拟议的罪犯管理公共政策相关的意外情况而开发的建模技术将向执法机构通报司法趋势，并将提供经验证据，说明在当地和区域执行地理管理战略的空间和社会经济后果。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Nationally visible cases of convicted criminals who lapsed back into criminal activity following their release into the community have prompted state and federal legislators and local communities to focus on the public safety risk posed by offenders and the most appropriate means of dealing with this unique population. The monitoring and management of convicted offenders is a major policy consideration in the United States. Many federal and state regulations mandate that communities track those individuals who have been convicted of certain crimes, in some cases for their entire lives as they move from one location to another. Local jurisdictions have also extended these federally mandated requirements for convicted offenders with increasingly punitive ordinances that ban offenders from living within a specified distance of certain locations and imposing dispersion and saturation statutes that limit the number of offenders living within a community or local area. This collaborative research project will (1) develop a spatial analytical framework for addressing offender issues; (2) establish guidelines for the appropriate use and specification of methods to address a range of contexts, including inference and optimization approaches; (3) develop optimization models reflecting public policy, thereby enabling spatial impacts to be evaluated for alternative policy scenarios; (4) develop space-time methods for assessing offender residency change; and (5) interpret findings to better inform public policy and corrections practices with respect to legislative implications, community notification, and offender reentry. The investigators initially will focus on a case study in Hamilton County, Ohio, working to refine a spatial analytical framework that will identify appropriate methods, address specification issues, develop new methods, and provide interpretation in terms of public policy and corrections.This project will develop a spatial analytical framework and toolbox for addressing convicted offender residency issues. This will facilitate access to a combination of new and existing exploratory and confirmatory statistical methods and to new and existing spatial optimization models that can be used for analyzing impacts as well as developing and evaluating public policy associated with the management of convicted offenders. The spatial analytical framework and toolbox will enable spatio-temporal analysis and geovisualization of social impacts, clustering, and offender residency movements as well as provide the capacity to examine residency choice factors. Modeling techniques developed to identify the spatio-temporal movements of offenders and the contingencies associated with existing or proposed public policies for managing offenders will inform law enforcement agencies of jurisdictional trends, and they will provide empirical evidence of the spatial and socioeconomic consequences of enforcing geographic management strategies both locally and regionally.