Managing Intermittency in Planning and Operations of Power

这项研究的目的是开发有效的工具，以帮助电力系统运营商和规划者应对间歇性影响所带来的挑战，这种间歇性影响由于风能在资源组合中的日益普及而变得越来越明显。该方法是通过详细的统计分析，开发出位于电力系统中不同地点的不同技术涡轮机的风力发电场输出的概率模型。这些模型将用于评估系统运行可靠性和运行成本在不同的储备政策下的系统与不同水平的风穿透。随着渗透的加深，调查将确定模型的鲁棒性，并将允许在不同级别的可靠性和运营成本之间构建权衡面。提出的概率模型将能够表示风速变化及其不完善的预测对风力发电的影响。这些模型将考虑风力站点之间的地理相关性、需求/风速的时间相关性、风电场单元之间的相互蚕食效应以及多个风电场整合到一个电力系统中所产生的平滑效应。更广泛的影响该项目将允许实现智能电网愿景的一个主要方面？O可再生能源的广泛应用。教育目标是制定一个愿景，重塑电力和能源系统课程，为新一代绿色能源工程师提供适当的培训，他们将提供领导能力和专业知识，使可持续能源成为现实。

The objective of this research is to develop effective tools to help power system operators and planners to address the challenges posed by the intermittency effects that are becoming more pronounced due to the increasing penetration of wind-based energy in the resource mix. The approach is to develop, through detailed statistical analysis, probabilistic models of the output of wind farms with different technology turbines located at various sites in a power system. These models will be used to evaluate system operational reliability and operational costs under different reserve policies for systems with various levels of wind penetration. The investigation will determine the robustness of the models as the penetration becomes deeper and will allow the construction of trade-off surfaces between different levels of reliability and operational costs.Intellectual MeritThe proposed probabilistic models will be able to represent the impacts of wind speed variability and their imperfect forecasts on wind resource generation. The models will consider geographical correlation between wind sites, demand/wind speed temporal correlations, cannibalization effects among units in wind farms and smoothing effects resulting from the integration of several wind farms into a power system. Broader ImpactsThe project will allow the realization of one of the main aspects of the smart grid vision ?o the widespread deployment of renewable energy resources. The educational goals are to develop a vision for reshaping the power and energy systems curricula to provide appropriate training to the new generation of green energy engineers, who will provide the leadership and expertise to make sustainable energy a reality.