Development of a Taxonomy of Acceptable and Tolerable Risk

这一跨学科研究项目的目的是制定一个全面的分类，可接受的和可容忍的自然灾害造成的风险。自然灾害的例子包括龙卷风、飓风和地震。目前可用的风险分析方法没有充分反映自然灾害对个人福祉的影响。它们也没有考虑到人造和改造的自然环境对自然灾害发生的可能性和社会影响的严重性的影响所涉及的道德问题。PI将风险定义为个人能力因危险而降低的概率。能力指的是有价值的状态和活动，例如获得足够的营养或庇护，个人有真正的机会实现。利用概率、可靠性和统计方法，PI将根据过去灾害的可用数据，制定一个公式来预测灾害对能力的影响。PI将使用法律中使用的一般原则来规定广泛的法律的权利，如言论自由权，从而规定可接受和可容忍的能力水平的阈值。这些阈值将作为经验验证的标准，对个人的预测水平？能力应该比较。最后，由于建成和改造的自然环境的特点，将确定发生概率和危害对能力影响的严重程度的允许和不允许增加的标准。拟议的分类法提供了一个原创的和潜在的变革性理论框架，它将伦理学引入风险分析的中心，并以一种新颖的方式概念化危险的影响和道德意义。拟议的分类法可用于在减轻自然灾害的背景下制定有关资源分配的知情和可持续的公共政策。

This interdisciplinary research project aims to develop a comprehensive taxonomy of acceptable and tolerable risks posed by natural hazards. Examples of natural hazards include tornados, hurricanes, and earthquakes. Currently available approaches to risk analysis do not adequately capture the impact of natural hazards on the well-being of individuals. They also fail to consider the moral implications of the influence of the built and modified natural environments on both the probability of occurrence and the severity of the societal impact of natural hazards. The PIs define risk as the probability that individuals' capabilities will be reduced due to a hazard. Capabilities refer to the states and activities that are valuable, such as being adequately nourished or sheltered, that an individual has a genuine opportunity to achieve. Drawing on probability, reliability, and statistical methods, the PIs will develop a formulation to predict the impact of hazards on capabilities, based on available data from past disasters. The PIs will specify thresholds of acceptable and tolerable levels of capabilities using the general principles employed in law to specify broad legal rights, such as the right to free speech. These thresholds will serve as empirically verified standards, against which the predicted level of individuals? capabilities should be compared. Finally, standards for permissible and impermissible increases in the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of hazards on capabilities due to the characteristics of the built and modified natural environments will be identified.The proposed taxonomy provides an original and potentially transformative theoretical framework, which brings ethics to the center of risk analysis and conceptualizes in a novel manner the impact and moral significance of hazards. The proposed taxonomy can be used to formulate informed and sustainable public policies regarding resource allocation in the context of natural hazard mitigation.