SBIR Phase I: Cluster-Based Forecasting of Intermittent Demand for Service and Spare Parts

SBIR 第一阶段：基于集群的服务和备件间歇性需求预测

• 批准号: 0944261
• 负责人: Nelson Hartunian
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: Smart Software Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-01-01 至 2010-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0944261&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBIR; Phase; Cluster; Based; Forecasting

This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project will advance the state of the art in forecasting the demand for spare and service parts, which is typically "intermittent" and difficult to forecast. Intermittent demand is characterized by a high percentage of zero values, interspersed with random nonzero integer demands that often have high variance. This project moves beyond the conventional one-item-at-a-time approach toward a new methodology based on identifying and exploiting clusters of parts which respond to common drivers. The broader impact/commercial potential of this project will be improved demand planning and inventory management for companies with large inventories of spare or service parts. These are the second largest item on the balance sheets of many companies, and spending on them amounts to roughly 8% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product. With so much capital invested, minimizing inventory becomes a priority. On the other hand, with shorter cycle times and greater competition across all sectors, maintaining sufficient inventory to meet service level commitments is also essential. These twin pressures require accurate demand forecasts in order to determine the inventory "sweet spot".

这个小型企业创新研究（SBIR）第一阶段项目将推进备件和服务零件需求预测的最新技术水平，这通常是“间歇性的”，难以预测。间歇性需求的特点是零值的百分比很高，其间散布着随机的非零整数需求，这些需求通常具有很高的方差。该项目超越了传统的一次一个项目的方法，转向一种新的方法，该方法基于识别和利用对共同驱动因素做出响应的部件集群。 该项目更广泛的影响/商业潜力将是改善拥有大量备件或服务备件库存的公司的需求规划和库存管理。这些是许多公司资产负债表上的第二大项目，其支出约占美国国内生产总值的8%。有了这么多的资本投入，最大限度地减少库存成为一个优先事项。另一方面，随着周期时间的缩短和所有行业竞争的加剧，保持足够的库存以满足服务水平承诺也至关重要。这双重压力要求准确的需求预测，以确定库存的“甜蜜点”。