Collaborative Research: Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Local Extinctions: A 300-Year Experiment

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Species extinction is a poorly understood process, particularly at local scales, because there are few ecological data sets that span long enough time periods to reveal patterns of extinction. There is perhaps no single place on Earth where changes in the local assemblage of species have been carefully observed and documented continuously at a decadal time scale over several centuries. As a consequence, many basic questions about patterns and rates of species extinction following environmental change are difficult to answer. For example, how many species have been lost from local areas? Do extinctions follow immediately after a disturbance, or are post-disturbance extinctions delayed, resulting in an 'extinction debt' to be paid in the future? Data collected by this project will begin to fill a deficit that has limited scientists' ability to answer these basic questions. Paleontological techniques that have traditionally been used to study changes in plant communities over many thousands of years will be used to examine changes in plant communities in the past few hundred years. Seeds, leaf fragments, and pollen will be analyzed in sediment cores from disturbed wetlands in the Indiana Dunes to create a long-term ecological data set with approximately ten-year intervals from the present day to about 300 years ago. Analysis of these long-term data will advance ecological theory and aid conservation practice by supplying information critically needed to gauge what current patterns of ecosystem change mean for the future. This project will provide training and mentorship for several undergraduate students, a high school student, a high school teacher, a technician, and a postdoctoral researcher. The project will also support the development of educational and outreach material for K-12 programs.