Scaling Supreme Court Opinions

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This project will develop an original latent variable estimator to scale Supreme Court opinions in a "case space." Systematic study of the determinants and consequences of judicially-created policy have been hampered by the lack of systematic, quantitative measures of legal doctrine. The project will develop a theoretical model of the location of cases and opinions in an underlying "case space" as a function of citations to past cases. Taking advantage of the common law method used in American jurisprudence, the factual components of cases and the legal components of the various opinions written in the course of disposing of the cases will be systematically estimated. Original data will be collected on factual and legal links - citations - among cases to which the estimator will be applied. The method and data will allow scholars to better address the theoretical questions that dominate the literature. For example, the method will allow for new tests of theories of bargaining on collegial courts, theories of the influence of extra-judicial actors on the creation of legal policy, and theories of the effects of Supreme Court appointments.The project will have broad implications for the study of democratic political institutions. First and most directly, the research will shed light onto the systematic patterns in judicial policy making by providing a quantitative measure of judicial policy. Second, the project will allow future researchers to answer many of the outstanding questions about the constraints under which courts decide cases and the path along which the law develops. For example, a significant question in political science concerns the extent to which judicial decisions are effective protections for minority rights and the extent to which the courts are constrained by majoritarian politics. With a systematic measure of the policies created by judicial opinions, better assessments can be made of how judges shape the law and the extent to which lower courts and extra-judicial officials comply with the courts' decisions. It also will be possible to gain better insight into the forces that drive judicial policy.