A Long Record of Earthquakes with Timing Displacements for the Dead-Sea Transform Fault: A Test of Earthquake Recurrence Models

死海转换断层具有定时位移的地震的长期记录：地震复发模型的检验

• 批准号: 1019871
• 负责人: Thomas Rockwell
• 金额: $ 28.1万
• 依托单位: San Diego State University Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1019871&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Long; Record; Earthquakes; Timing; Displacements

This project will test earthquake recurrence and slip models for a major plate boundary fault, the Dead Sea Transform in Israel. Through high-resolution three-dimensional trenching and precise dating of past earthquakes, along with analysis of the exceptionally long historical record of earthquakes in this region, this work will determine the timing and sizes of past earthquakes along this simple fault system. This will provide a test of the repeatability of large earthquakes and whether their occurrence in time is predictable or more random. This issue is at the core of earthquake forecast models and yet there is no general agreement as to what direction or approach should be taken because there are very few long records of past earthquakes, and most lack information on displacement. Understanding earthquake production along plate boundary faults is critical for seismic hazard assessment worldwide. Most studies on earthquake recurrence have been conducted along complex plate boundaries, such as in California where multiple parallel faults affect stress interaction, and on faults with high rates such that the production of large earthquakes is too frequent to precisely resolve unambiguous event ages without overlap in uncertainties. The Dead Sea Transform is a unique plate boundary fault with a very long historical record that slips at a moderate rate, and has a simple segmented geometry with no parallel interacting strands in Israel and Jordan. It is therefore uniquely set to address questions of earthquake recurrence and its variability. Thus, this project will provide much needed information to test the fundamental behavior of continental transform systems, and will lead to better methodology in the forecasting of future destructive earthquakes worldwide.

这个项目将测试一个主要的板块边界断层--以色列的死海转换--的地震复发和滑动模型。通过对过去地震的高分辨率三维切槽和精确测年，以及对该地区异常漫长的地震历史记录的分析，这项工作将确定这一简单断层系统沿线过去地震的时间和规模。这将检验大地震的重复性，以及它们在时间上的发生是可预测的还是更随机的。这个问题是地震预报模型的核心问题，但对于应该采取什么方向或方法，没有达成普遍的共识，因为过去地震的长期记录很少，而且大多数缺乏关于位移的信息。了解沿板块边界断层的地震产生对于世界范围内的地震危险性评估至关重要。大多数关于地震复发的研究都是在复杂的板块边界上进行的，例如在加利福尼亚州，那里有多个平行断层影响应力相互作用，以及高比率的断层，因此大地震的发生过于频繁，无法在不存在不确定性重叠的情况下准确地确定事件的年龄。死海转换是一种独特的板块边界断层，具有非常长的历史记录，以中等速度滑动，并具有简单的分段几何结构，在以色列和约旦没有平行的相互作用的绞线。因此，它是为解决地震重现及其变异性问题而设置的独特工具。因此，该项目将提供急需的信息来测试大陆转换系统的基本行为，并将在未来世界范围内的破坏性地震预测中带来更好的方法。