A Long Record of Earthquakes with Timing Displacements for the Dead-Sea Transform Fault: A Test of Earthquake Recurrence Models

该项目将测试一个主要板块边界断层的地震复发和滑动模型，即以色列的死海断层。通过高分辨率的三维沟槽和对过去地震的精确测年，以及对该地区异常漫长的地震历史记录的分析，这项工作将确定沿着这个简单断层系统的过去地震的时间和大小。这将为大地震的可重复性以及它们在时间上的发生是可预测的还是更随机的提供一种测试。这个问题是地震预报模型的核心，但由于很少有关于过去地震的长期记录，而且大多数缺乏关于位移的信息，因此对于应该采取什么方向或方法没有普遍的共识。了解沿板块边界断层的地震产生对世界范围内的地震危险性评估至关重要。大多数关于地震复发的研究都是沿着复杂的板块边界进行的，比如在加利福尼亚，多个平行断层影响应力相互作用，以及在高频率的断层上进行的，以至于大地震的产生过于频繁，无法精确地解决明确的事件年龄，而不会在不确定性中重叠。死海变换是一个独特的板块边界断层，具有非常长的历史记录，以中等速度滑动，并且具有简单的分段几何形状，在以色列和约旦没有平行的相互作用链。因此，它是独特的设置，以解决问题的地震复发及其变异性。因此，该项目将为测试大陆变换系统的基本行为提供急需的信息，并将为预测未来全球破坏性地震提供更好的方法。

This project will test earthquake recurrence and slip models for a major plate boundary fault, the Dead Sea Transform in Israel. Through high-resolution three-dimensional trenching and precise dating of past earthquakes, along with analysis of the exceptionally long historical record of earthquakes in this region, this work will determine the timing and sizes of past earthquakes along this simple fault system. This will provide a test of the repeatability of large earthquakes and whether their occurrence in time is predictable or more random. This issue is at the core of earthquake forecast models and yet there is no general agreement as to what direction or approach should be taken because there are very few long records of past earthquakes, and most lack information on displacement. Understanding earthquake production along plate boundary faults is critical for seismic hazard assessment worldwide. Most studies on earthquake recurrence have been conducted along complex plate boundaries, such as in California where multiple parallel faults affect stress interaction, and on faults with high rates such that the production of large earthquakes is too frequent to precisely resolve unambiguous event ages without overlap in uncertainties. The Dead Sea Transform is a unique plate boundary fault with a very long historical record that slips at a moderate rate, and has a simple segmented geometry with no parallel interacting strands in Israel and Jordan. It is therefore uniquely set to address questions of earthquake recurrence and its variability. Thus, this project will provide much needed information to test the fundamental behavior of continental transform systems, and will lead to better methodology in the forecasting of future destructive earthquakes worldwide.