Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Seismic Risk Based on Stochastic Sampling and Focusing on Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling

基于随机采样并聚焦随机地震动模型的地震风险概率敏感性分析

• 批准号: 1030726
• 负责人: Alexandros Taflanidis
• 金额: $ 24.94万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-01-01 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1030726&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Probabilistic; Sensitivity; Analysis; Seismic; Risk

Uncertainties in the seismic hazard parameters such the epicentral distance and intensity of future earthquake events as well as in the stochastic models used to describe the corresponding ground motion time-histories have significant impact on the calculated seismic risk for structural systems. The objective of this research is to develop a computationally efficient new framework to quantify the importance of such risk factors on the structural system performance and the design ground motion selection. To accomplish this goal, a probabilistic simulation-based methodology will be formulated to calculate the seismic risk for structural systems. Numerically efficient approaches based on stochastic sampling and recent advances in computer and computational science will be developed for sensitivity analysis to quantify the influence of the uncertain model characteristics on seismic risk. These approaches will be applied to a variety of structural systems with diverse performance definitions. The project will provide a methodology for efficient probabilistic sensitivity analysis and for quantifying the importance of various risk factors in the seismic structural design practice. The research will significantly advance our understanding of the impact of various seismic-risk factors and is expected to influence the future earthquake risk mitigation strategies. This research effort will educate the future generation of researchers and professionals about the potentials of simulation-based engineering science for handling uncertainties. This study will be used as a resource to improve the undergraduate curriculum by offering a new elective course in seismic design. The project will provide advanced training to graduate students and every effort will be made to recruit these students from the underrepresented groups by leveraging the success of existing programs at Notre Dame. Undergraduate researchers will also be involved in the project to develop web-based tools for wide and effective dissemination of the work.

未来地震事件的震中距和烈度等地震危险性参数以及描述相应地震动时程的随机模型的不确定性对结构系统的地震危险性计算有重要影响。本研究的目的是开发一个计算效率高的新框架，以量化的重要性，这些风险因素对结构系统的性能和设计地面运动的选择。为了实现这一目标，将制定基于概率模拟的方法来计算结构系统的地震风险。将开发基于随机抽样和计算机与计算科学最新进展的数值有效方法，用于敏感性分析，以量化不确定模型特征对地震风险的影响。这些方法将被应用到各种结构系统与不同的性能定义。该项目将提供一种有效的概率敏感性分析方法，并量化各种风险因素在抗震结构设计实践中的重要性。该研究将大大提高我们对各种地震风险因素影响的认识，并有望影响未来的地震风险缓解策略。这项研究工作将教育未来一代的研究人员和专业人士，了解基于仿真的工程科学在处理不确定性方面的潜力。这项研究将被用来作为一个资源，以改善本科课程，提供一个新的选修课程，在抗震设计。该项目将为研究生提供高级培训，并将尽一切努力通过利用圣母院现有方案的成功，从代表性不足的群体中招募这些学生。 本科生研究人员也将参与该项目，以开发基于网络的工具，以便广泛有效地传播这项工作。