Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Seismic Risk Based on Stochastic Sampling and Focusing on Stochastic Ground Motion Modeling

地震危险性参数的不确定性，如未来地震事件的震中距离和烈度，以及用于描述相应的地面运动时程的随机模型中的不确定性，都会对结构体系的地震危险性计算产生重大影响。这项研究的目的是开发一个计算效率高的新框架，以量化这些风险因素对结构体系性能和设计地震动选的重要性。为了实现这一目标，将制定一种基于概率模拟的方法来计算结构系统的地震风险。基于随机抽样和计算机和计算科学的最新进展，将发展有效的数值方法进行敏感性分析，以量化不确定模型特征对地震风险的影响。这些方法将适用于具有不同性能定义的各种结构系统。该项目将为有效的概率敏感性分析和量化地震结构设计实践中各种风险因素的重要性提供一种方法。这项研究将极大地促进我们对各种地震风险因素的影响的理解，并有望影响未来的地震风险缓解策略。这项研究工作将教育未来一代的研究人员和专业人员，了解基于模拟的工程科学在处理不确定性方面的潜力。这项研究将作为一种资源，通过开设一门新的抗震设计选修课来改进本科课程。该项目将为研究生提供高级培训，并将利用巴黎圣母院现有课程的成功，尽一切努力从代表性不足的群体中招收这些学生。本科生研究人员还将参与开发基于网络的工具，以广泛和有效地传播这项工作。

Uncertainties in the seismic hazard parameters such the epicentral distance and intensity of future earthquake events as well as in the stochastic models used to describe the corresponding ground motion time-histories have significant impact on the calculated seismic risk for structural systems. The objective of this research is to develop a computationally efficient new framework to quantify the importance of such risk factors on the structural system performance and the design ground motion selection. To accomplish this goal, a probabilistic simulation-based methodology will be formulated to calculate the seismic risk for structural systems. Numerically efficient approaches based on stochastic sampling and recent advances in computer and computational science will be developed for sensitivity analysis to quantify the influence of the uncertain model characteristics on seismic risk. These approaches will be applied to a variety of structural systems with diverse performance definitions. The project will provide a methodology for efficient probabilistic sensitivity analysis and for quantifying the importance of various risk factors in the seismic structural design practice. The research will significantly advance our understanding of the impact of various seismic-risk factors and is expected to influence the future earthquake risk mitigation strategies. This research effort will educate the future generation of researchers and professionals about the potentials of simulation-based engineering science for handling uncertainties. This study will be used as a resource to improve the undergraduate curriculum by offering a new elective course in seismic design. The project will provide advanced training to graduate students and every effort will be made to recruit these students from the underrepresented groups by leveraging the success of existing programs at Notre Dame. Undergraduate researchers will also be involved in the project to develop web-based tools for wide and effective dissemination of the work.