Risk-informed Management and Post-disaster Operations of Lifeline Networks by Rapid, Condition-based System Reliability Analysis

通过快速、基于条件的系统可靠性分析，对生命线网络进行风险知情管理和灾后运营

• 批准号: 1031318
• 负责人: Junho Song
• 金额: $ 31.16万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-15 至 2015-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1031318&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Risk; informed; Management; Post; disaster

The society is increasingly demanding scientific accountability behind risk management of lifeline networks such as hazard mitigation planning, infrastructure maintenance and post-disaster responses. For rapid and condition-based risk management of lifeline networks, it is essential to have system reliability analysis (SRA) methods that can integrate analyses across physical scales, and can interface models and data from multiple fields of science and engineering smoothly for quantifying system-level risk. The proposed project will develop multi-scale SRA methods employing advanced network clustering algorithms for efficient, accurate and collaborative risk assessment of large-size networks. The project will also create a near-real-time network risk alert system through integration of a rapid SRA method with a hazard alert system to facilitate rapid decision support on hazard responses. In addition, an efficient time-varying network SRA method will be developed in which network reliability is continuously updated based on inspection results of network component deterioration in order to sustain the network reliability with optimal use of limited resources.The analysis methods and numerical tools developed in this project will help practitioners understand the hierarchical structure of lifeline networks and its impacts on network risk and decision making, develop network risk alert systems customized for actual risk management practice, and perform condition-based maintenance considering actual deterioration progress and its impacts on network-level risk. Education-focused research tasks include the development of interactive cyber-environment on network theory, virtual experiment on network downtime, interactive computer software simulating network flow and connectivity, and mobile phone applications to demonstrate IT-based risk management. The research results will be incorporated into the graduate level courses on risk and reliability of complex infrastructure systems. Active efforts will be made to recruit students from the groups that are underrepresented in science and technology fields using the well-established institutional fellowship programs.

社会越来越要求在减灾规划、基础设施维护和灾后反应等生命线网络风险管理背后建立科学问责制。对于生命线网络的快速和基于条件的风险管理，必须具有系统可靠性分析（SRA）方法，该方法可以集成跨物理尺度的分析，并且可以将来自多个科学和工程领域的模型和数据平滑地接口以量化系统级风险。该项目将开发多尺度SRA方法，采用先进的网络聚类算法，对大型网络进行高效、准确和协作的风险评估。该项目还将通过将快速SRA方法与危险警报系统集成来创建近实时网络风险警报系统，以促进危险响应的快速决策支持。此外，本发明还提供了一种方法，本研究将发展一种有效的时变网络可靠性评估方法，根据网络元件劣化的检测结果不断更新网络可靠性，以最佳利用有限的资源维持网络可靠性。本研究所发展的分析方法和数值工具将帮助从业者了解生命线网络的层次结构及其对网络风险和决策的影响，开发针对实际风险管理实践的网络风险预警系统，并根据实际劣化进度及其对网络级风险的影响进行状态维护。以教育为重点的研究工作包括发展有关网络理论的互动网络环境、网络故障的虚拟实验、模拟网络流动和连接的互动计算机软件，以及演示以信息技术为基础的风险管理的移动的电话应用程序。研究成果将被纳入研究生课程的风险和复杂的基础设施系统的可靠性。将积极努力，利用完善的机构奖学金方案，从科学和技术领域代表性不足的群体中招收学生。