RAPID: 3-D Model Forecast of the Vertical and Horizontal Distributions of the Oil Plumes Arising From the DeepWater Horizon Spill

知识价值：自2010年4月20日深水地平线石油钻井平台爆炸以来，大量石油泄漏在墨西哥湾（GOM），对墨西哥湾沿岸以及美国东南海岸构成了前所未有的威胁。虽然自事故发生以来，卫星遥感、飞机飞行和地面漂流器提供了有关浮油表面轨迹的宝贵信息，但人们对浮油在地表以下的分布情况知之甚少。在本项目中，研究者将对使用分散剂创建的乳化油实施平流、扩散和反应示踪模型，并将其与现有的南大西洋湾和墨西哥湾（SABGOM）环流临近预报/预报系统相结合，以跟踪油羽的垂直和水平分布。这种耦合油循环模型将在整个飓风季节(6月1日？11月30日)，为墨西哥湾和东南大西洋沿岸海域提供全天候的三维石油轨迹预测。在这个项目中需要解决的具体问题包括：1)泄漏是如何在深海分布的，以及它们在多大程度上被亚表层洋流输送？2)与穿越墨西哥湾和南大西洋湾的热带风暴相关的强混合是如何将地下石油带到地面的？3)风暴潮是如何把新浮出水面的石油带到海滩上的？鉴于对井口溢油总量仍未达成共识，研究者还将对各种溢油量进行模型敏感性实验。现有的卫星和飞机观测将用于验证模拟的溢油表面特征，包括扩展方向和总面积。更广泛的影响：由此产生的三维石油示踪区（来自不同的溢油量情景）将用于计算石油在不同海洋深度的停留时间，从而为继续恢复工作提供关键信息。作为该项目成果的一部分，循环预测和三维石油轨迹将通过公共网站提供。研究成果将发表在同行评议的期刊上。

Intellectual merit: Since the explosion of the Deep Water Horizon Oil Drilling Rig on April 20, 2010, a large amount of oil has spilled in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), posing unprecedented threat to the gulf coasts, as well as the southeast coast of United States. While satellite remote sensing, aircraft flights, and surfaces drifters are providing valuable information on the oil surface trajectories since the accident, little is known about how the spill is distributed below the surface. In this project, the investigator hereby will implement an advection, diffusion and reaction tracer model for Emulsified Oil created by the use of dispersants and couple it within our exiting South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico (SABGOM) circulation nowcast/forecast system to track the vertical and horizontal distribution of the oil plumes. This coupled oil-circulation model will be run throughout the entire hurricane season (June 1 ? November 30) to provide 24/7 prediction of three-dimensional oil trajectory in the GOM and southeast Atlantic coastal ocean. Specific questions to be addressed in this project include:1) How is the spill distributed at depths, and to what extent they have been transported by theSub-surface currents?2) How does the strong mixing associated with tropical storms traversing the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic Bight bring subsurface oil up to the surface? 3) How do the storm surges transport the newly surfaced oil up on the beach?Given there is still no consensus on the total amount of oil spilled from the wellhead, the investigator will also perform model sensitivity experiments with various amount estimates of oil spill. Existing satellite and aircraft observations will be used to validate the simulated oil spill surface features, including expansion directions and total areas. Broader Impacts: The resulting three-dimensional oil tracer fields (from different oil spill amount scenarios) will be used to calculate the oil residence time at different depths of the ocean, thereby offering critical information for continued restoration effort. As a part of deliverable of this project, the predictions of circulation and three-dimensional oil trajectories will be made available through a public website. Research findings will be published in peer reviewed journals.