RAPID: 3-D Model Forecast of the Vertical and Horizontal Distributions of the Oil Plumes Arising From the DeepWater Horizon Spill

智力优势：自2010年4月20日深水地平线石油钻井平台爆炸以来，墨西哥湾(GOM)发生了大量石油泄漏，对墨西哥湾海岸以及美国东南海岸构成了前所未有的威胁。虽然卫星遥感、飞机飞行和海面漂浮物提供了自事故以来油面轨迹的宝贵信息，但人们对漏油是如何分布在海面下的知之甚少。在这个项目中，研究人员将实施一个通过使用分散剂创建的乳化油的平流、扩散和反应示踪模型，并将其耦合到我们现有的南大西洋海湾和墨西哥湾(SABGOM)环流现场预报/预报系统中，以跟踪油柱的垂直和水平分布。这种石油-循环耦合模式将在整个飓风季节(6月1日？11月30日)，提供对GOM和东南大西洋沿岸海域三维石油轨迹的全天候预测。这个项目要解决的具体问题包括：1)泄漏是如何在深处分布的，以及它们在多大程度上被地下洋流输送？2)与横跨墨西哥湾和南大西洋海湾的热带风暴有关的强烈混合如何将地下石油带到水面？3)风暴潮如何将新浮出海滩的石油输送到海滩上？鉴于对井口泄漏的石油总量仍未达成共识，调查者还将进行模型敏感性实验，对不同的溢油数量进行估计。现有的卫星和飞机观测将用于验证模拟的溢油表面特征，包括扩展方向和总面积。更广泛的影响：由此产生的三维石油示踪场(来自不同的溢油量情况)将被用来计算不同海洋深度的石油停留时间，从而为继续恢复工作提供关键信息。作为该项目可交付成果的一部分，循环预测和三维石油轨迹将通过公共网站提供。研究结果将发表在同行评议的期刊上。

Intellectual merit: Since the explosion of the Deep Water Horizon Oil Drilling Rig on April 20, 2010, a large amount of oil has spilled in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), posing unprecedented threat to the gulf coasts, as well as the southeast coast of United States. While satellite remote sensing, aircraft flights, and surfaces drifters are providing valuable information on the oil surface trajectories since the accident, little is known about how the spill is distributed below the surface. In this project, the investigator hereby will implement an advection, diffusion and reaction tracer model for Emulsified Oil created by the use of dispersants and couple it within our exiting South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico (SABGOM) circulation nowcast/forecast system to track the vertical and horizontal distribution of the oil plumes. This coupled oil-circulation model will be run throughout the entire hurricane season (June 1 ? November 30) to provide 24/7 prediction of three-dimensional oil trajectory in the GOM and southeast Atlantic coastal ocean. Specific questions to be addressed in this project include:1) How is the spill distributed at depths, and to what extent they have been transported by theSub-surface currents?2) How does the strong mixing associated with tropical storms traversing the Gulf of Mexico and the South Atlantic Bight bring subsurface oil up to the surface? 3) How do the storm surges transport the newly surfaced oil up on the beach?Given there is still no consensus on the total amount of oil spilled from the wellhead, the investigator will also perform model sensitivity experiments with various amount estimates of oil spill. Existing satellite and aircraft observations will be used to validate the simulated oil spill surface features, including expansion directions and total areas. Broader Impacts: The resulting three-dimensional oil tracer fields (from different oil spill amount scenarios) will be used to calculate the oil residence time at different depths of the ocean, thereby offering critical information for continued restoration effort. As a part of deliverable of this project, the predictions of circulation and three-dimensional oil trajectories will be made available through a public website. Research findings will be published in peer reviewed journals.