Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle

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Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to improve the decadal and regional projections of the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. There currently is substantial spread in the predictions of atmospheric carbon among the full complexity climate-carbon models, even with the same anthropogenic forcings. This spread in predictions of the carbon uptake by the land and ocean result in large differences in climate forcing, and thus climate impacts. The next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the first that will include the carbon cycle for all models, and thus the carbon cycle models have not yet been subject to the same rigorous analysis that the physical models have been exposed to. This project will jump-start the process of understanding and improving the carbon cycle in the Community Earth System Model. The goal is to compile datasets, prepare methodologies for comparisons and develop metrics that will facilitate improvements in the models and reduce the uncertainty in future climate projections of the carbon cycle for earth system models. In addition, the PIs will use these datasets to answer fundamental questions about how the carbon cycle responds on regional and decadal scales, and how it will evolve in the future. This project includes experts in modeling and model/data comparisons for the land, ocean and atmosphere, which is required for the cross-disciplinary challenge of improving simulations of regional and decadal scale carbon fluxes. Broader impactsThis project includes the compilation and publishing of important datasets and metrics that can be used to improve carbon flux predictions. It will result in improvements in the publically available Community Earth System Model. The project includes the education of 4 graduate students, and 2 undergraduate students in cross-disciplinary studies of the carbon cycle. It also includes outreach programs targeted at temporary exhibits at museums, and K-12 teacher development programs.