Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States
Collaborative Research: Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western United States
批准号:
1049238
负责人:
Lowell Stott
金额:
$153.89万
依托单位国家:
美国
项目类别:
Continuing Grant
财政年份:
2011
资助国家:
美国
项目状态:
已结题
起止时间:
2011-04-01 至 2016-12-31
中文摘要
该项目支持一组研究人员进行十年气候预测的主要研究,题为“调查十年气候可预测性和气候对美国西部的影响(IDCPI)”。IDCPI是一项跨学科的努力,目的是使用气候和古气候数据的仪器记录来评估地球系统模型(EaSM)预测十年气候变异性的技能水平。一般来说,研究小组将把重点放在美国西部地区,因为历史和史前记录都记录了反复出现的十年尺度的水气候变化,包括反复干旱,这被归因于海表面温度(SST)异常。具体地说,该团队将使用模型与同位素“指纹”方法相结合,以:1)评估地球系统模型(全球和区域模型)准确模拟大气对SST强迫的响应的能力;2)回顾调查模型是否可以提前预测干旱并估计事件将持续多长时间;3)评估美国西部未来的干旱是否可以用现有的模型预测;以及4)在模型表现出技能的美国西部,开发具有不确定性估计的未来水文预测。该项目有可能提高美国西南部地区气候预测的可靠性。在这样做的过程中,这项研究将对资源经理和政策制定者具有重要意义。该项目还为培训和指导与合作机构有关的博士后学者提供了一种独特的队列方法。
英文摘要
This project supports a team of researchers in a major research thrust in decadal climate prediction entitled "Investigating Decadal Climate Predictability and Climate Impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US." The IDCPI is an interdisciplinary effort to use instrumental records of climate and paleoclimate data to assess the skill level of Earth System Models (EaSM) to forecast decadal climate variability. Generally, the research team will focus on the region of the western Unites States because both historic and prehistoric records document recurrent decadal-scale hydroclimate variability, including repeated drought, which has been attributed to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Specifically, the team will use models, in combination with an isotope "fingerprinting" methodology, to: 1) assess the ability of Earth System models (global and regional models) to accurately simulate the atmospheric response to SST forcing; 2) retrospectively investigate whether models can predict drought in advance and estimate how long the events will persist; 3) assess whether a future drought in the western U.S. is currently predictable with existing models; and 4) develop future hydrologic predictions with uncertainty estimates for the western U.S. where models exhibit skill.This project has the potential to improve the reliability of regional climate predictions in the southwest Unites States. In doing so, the research would be of importance to resource managers and policy makers. The project also provides a unique cohort approach to the training and mentoring of post doctoral scholars associated with the collaborating institutions.
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Acquisition of a New Continuous-Flow Stable Isotope Mass Spectrometer and Two Elemental Analyzers for Support of the University of Southern California Stable Isotope Facility
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批准号:0825325
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Workshop: Benefit and Practicality of the Establishment of a Virtual Climate Institute on the West Coast; Los Angeles, California; Summer 2008
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$1.67万
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财政年份:2008
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
Testing the Hypothesis: Recurring Century-Length Episodes of Reduced Summer Monsoon Precipitation Are Linked to Ocean/Atmosphere Dynamics in the Tropical Pacific
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Marine Earth System History (MESH) Planning Office Activities
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批准号:0424591
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$0.0万
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财政年份:2004
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
Workshop on Tropical Climate Variability Beyond the Historic Record
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批准号:0332242
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资助金额:$2.69万
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财政年份:2003
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
A Study to Test How Tropical Pacific and Extra-Tropical Climates Are Linked at Millenial Time-Scales Through the Holocene
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批准号:0317621
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依托单位:
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依托单位:
A Study to Determine What has Controlled the Spread of Anoxia and Laminated Sediments in The Northeast Pacific: Basin Ventilation versus Carbon Oxidation
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批准号:0002250
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财政年份:2000
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
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批准号:9902893
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$8.0万
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
Collaborative Research: Glacial-Interglacial Changes in Indo-Pacific Throughflow and the Stability of the Warm Pool
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批准号:9729713
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项目类别:Standard Grant
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资助金额:$42.14万
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依托单位:
A Stable Isotope Investigation of the Impact of Primary Production from Pack Ice on Southern Ocean Sediment Proxy Records
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批准号:9633183
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资助金额:$18.05万
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
Climatic Modulation of Indo-Pacific Transport of Thermocline Waters
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批准号:9314192
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$20.39万
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
Collaborative Research: Late Pleistocene Induced Fluctuations in the California Current, a Paleoceanographic and Ocean Drilling Program Site Survey Study
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批准号:9314512
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项目类别:Continuing Grant
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资助金额:$22.72万
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财政年份:1994
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负责人:Lowell Stott
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依托单位:
国内基金
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