CAREER: Robust Management of Climate Uncertainty for Ecohydrological Sustainability

职业：对气候不确定性进行稳健管理以实现生态水文可持续性

• 批准号: 1054762
• 负责人: Casey Brown
• 金额: $ 41.91万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-07-01 至 2017-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1054762&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Robust; Management; Climate; Uncertainty

The goal of this research is to develop, demonstrate and disseminate water management methods that address nonstationary climate and foster ecohydrological sustainability. The goal is to be accomplished through four specific objectives: 1) develop robustness measures of climate change risks for water resources systems, 2) evaluate risks of stationarity-based water management under climate change uncertainty, 3) explore the relative ecohydrological performance of robust water management, 4) develop a new pedagogy for water management under climate change. The research leverages data collection, ecological flow information, model development and knowledge network formation underway in projects funded by NOAA and The Nature Conservancy with US Army Corps of Engineers and USGS partners. The resulting data rich modeling environment will facilitate the testing of hypotheses through simulation experiments of robust water management strategies with calibrated integrated systems models. The modeling environment will be further enriched by established relationships with water managers and stakeholders throughout the basin for vetting of experimental design and results. A new paradigm of robust water management will be demonstrated and disseminated through the development of original educational material for low income, minority K-12 students, nonscience majors and engineering undergraduate and graduate students, outreach efforts with water managers at local, state and federal levels throughout New England which leverage the NOAA-funded UMASS Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) and internationally through professional development and outreach programs of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and the UNESCO International Center for Integrated

这项研究的目标是开发，展示和传播水资源管理方法，解决非平稳气候和促进生态水文可持续性。这一目标将通过四个具体目标来实现：1）开发水资源系统气候变化风险的鲁棒性措施，2）评估气候变化不确定性下基于台站的水资源管理的风险，3）探索鲁棒水资源管理的相对生态水文性能，4）开发气候变化下的水资源管理新教学法。该研究利用了NOAA和大自然保护协会与美国陆军工程兵团和USGS合作伙伴资助的项目中正在进行的数据收集，生态流信息，模型开发和知识网络形成。由此产生的数据丰富的建模环境将有利于通过模拟实验的强大的水资源管理策略与校准的综合系统模型的假设进行测试。通过与整个流域的水资源管理者和利益相关者建立关系，进一步丰富模拟环境，以审查实验设计和结果。 将通过为低收入、少数民族K-12学生、非科学专业和工程本科生和研究生编写原创教育材料，与当地水管理人员开展外联工作，整个新英格兰的州和联邦级别，利用NOAA资助的UMASS区域综合科学和评估（RISA）通过美国土木工程师协会（ASCE）和联合国教科文组织国际综合中心的专业发展和推广计划，