CAREER: Using hydroclimatic thresholds and changing baselines to develop decision tools for adaptive water use policy

1055934(贾恩)这一职业提案的研究目标是提供一个全面的决策工具，以分析水文变化并量化对人类和生态系统的影响，并测试和评估政策在面对不断变化的气候和不确定预测时的充分性。该项目将使用缩小的全球水文学模型输出来驱动一个陆面/分水岭模型，该模型能够预测与政策相关的指标，如流量持续时间曲线和水文变化指标，然后用这些指标来确定将有助于实现当前和未来气候条件下的目标的适应性用水政策。将与缅因州环境保护部和广泛的与水有关的利益攸关方团体合作，采用系统建模方法，辅之以研究利益攸关方协作。该奖项的教育部分是对研究活动的补充，力求纠正目前环境科学和工程课程中与水资源基础设施可持续性有关的明显差距。研究得出的数据、模型、方法和案例研究将通过以下方式与整个K-20教育系统和非正规教育环境中的教学和外联活动相结合：(A)为佩诺布斯科特河流域开发基于媒体的可编程分水岭模型？将K-12流域的科学、地理和文化融入积极的讲故事和分享之中；(B)与缅因州大学S和瓦巴纳基中心合作，与Penobskt和PassamAquoddy印度学校的学生和教师开展持续的流域可持续性教育活动；以及(C)创建和修订以跨学科流域可持续性专题为重点的本科生和研究生课程。综合研究和教育计划是朝着在可持续发展原则指导下发展创新环境解决办法的能力的长期承诺迈出的第一步。长期利益不仅包括确定和制定有效的环境解决办法所需的科学和技术知识，而且还包括有能力应对挑战和应对气候变化中环境可持续性的迫切需要的新一代公民。确定灵活性、意外的可能性和确定行动方针(政策的灵活性)需要研究人员-机构-利益相关者集体的深入参与。缅因州S、帕萨马阿科迪和佩诺布斯科特中学学生的参与为这个传统上代表人数较少的群体提供了一个独特的机会，让他们渴望获得更高水平的学习和教育。与S大学和巴纳基中心的合作将有助于确保在全州和其他地区长期参与和吸收关于STEM推广的有效模式的新知识。

1055934 (Jain) The research objective of this CAREER proposal is to deliver a comprehensive decision tool to analyze hydrologic changes and quantify impacts on humans and ecosystems and test and assess the adequacy of policy in the face of changing climate and uncertain forecasts. The project would use downscaled GCM output to drive a land surface/watershed model capable of predicting policy relevant metrics such as flow duration curves and indicators of hydrologic alteration which would then be used to determine adaptive water use policy that would help to meet targets under current and future climate conditions. The research methodology to be applied, in collaboration with the Maine Department of Environmental Protection and a broad range of water-related stakeholder groups, uses a systems modeling approach complemented by a research-stakeholder collaborative. This award's educational component complements the research activities, seeking to redress perceived gaps in the present Environmental Science and Engineering curriculum relative to sustainability of water infrastructure. The data, models, methodologies, and case studies emanating from research will be integrated with teaching and outreach activities throughout the K-20 educational system and in informal education settings by: (a) development of programmable media-based watershed models for the Penobscot River Watershed?integrating K-12 science, geography and culture into active storytelling and sharing, (b) collaborative work with University of Maine?s Wabanaki Center to develop a sustained engagement on watershed sustainability education with students and teachers from the Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Indian schools, and (c) creating and revising undergraduate and graduate level courses focusing on interdisciplinary watershed sustainability topics. The integrated research and educational plan represents a first step towards a long-term commitment to develop the capacity for innovative environmental solutions guided by principles of sustainability. Long-term benefits include not only the scientific and technical knowledge necessary to identify and develop effective environmental solutions but also generation of citizens equipped to grasp the challenges and respond to the imperative of environmental sustainability in a changing climate. Ascertaining flexibility, probability of surprises, and determining courses of action (flexibility in policy) demand deep engagement of the researcher-agency-stakeholder collective. Participation of Maine?s Passamaquoddy and Penobscot middle-school students extends a unique opportunity to this traditionally underrepresented group to aspire to higher levels of learning and education. The partnership with the University?s Wabanaki Center will help ensure long-term engagement and assimilation of new knowledge regarding effective models of STEM outreach throughout the state and beyond.