Collaborative Research: Continental-Scale Monitoring, Modeling and Forecasting of Phenological Responses to Climate Change

物候学这个术语既描述了植物和动物的季节节律，也描述了对这些节律的研究。植物的物候过程，包括，例如，当叶子在春天出现并在秋天改变颜色时，对天气的变化（例如温暖与寒冷的春天）以及气候的长期变化（例如变暖趋势和降雨量的时间和数量的变化）具有高度响应性。一个由生态学家、地理学家和计算机科学家组成的跨学科团队将开发一个大陆尺度的观测网络，以研究物候和气候之间的关系。具体而言，将使用数码相机向互联网（网络摄像头）发布实时图像，以监测美国各地不同生态系统中春季“绿色上升”和秋季“棕色下降”的植被。 该项目解决了生态学中的几个重大挑战问题，特别是关于理解和预测气候变化对植物和生态系统的影响。该项目将预测未来气候变化对物候的影响，并量化未来物候的变化如何影响社会从自然和管理的生态系统中获得的一些服务，如农作物，森林产品和清洁水。此外，该项目产生的数据将用于改进大规模气候模型中物候过程的表现，这将有助于减少未来气候预测的不确定性。该项目包括为本科生和研究生提供研究机会，以及为两名博士后研究助理提供跨学科培训。由NSF赞助的哈佛大学本科生森林研究经验项目的暑期实习生将直接参与该项目，与哈佛森林LTER校园项目和美国国家物候学网络的合作将促进公民科学家的参与。 通过突出物候学作为气候变化的生物影响的一个具体例子，这些外联工作将提高公众对人类在21世纪世纪面临的环境挑战的认识。

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). An interdisciplinary team, comprised of ecologists, geographers, and computer scientists, will develop a continental-scale observational network to study relationships between phenology and climate. Specifically, digital cameras posting live imagery to the Internet (webcams) will be used to monitor spring "green up" and autumn "brown down" of vegetation in different ecosystems across the United States. This project addresses several grand challenge questions in ecology, particularly with respect to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on plants and ecosystems. This project will develop predictions of how phenology may be affected by future climate change, and will quantify how future changes in phenology may impact some of the services that society derives from natural and managed ecosystems, such as agricultural crops, forest products, and clean water. In addition, the data produced from this project will be used improve the representation of phenological processes in large-scale climate models, which will help to reduce uncertainties in future climate forecasts. This project includes research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate-level students, and interdisciplinary training for two postdoctoral research associates. Summer interns in the Harvard Forest Research Experience for Undergraduates program, sponsored by NSF, will be engaged directly in this project, and collaboration both with the Harvard Forest LTER Schoolyard program and the USA National Phenology Network, will foster involvement of citizen scientists. By highlighting phenology as a tangible example of the biological impacts of climate change, these outreach efforts will raise public awareness about the environmental challenges facing humanity in the 21st Century.