Adaptation to Climate Change in the Lake Champlain Basin: New Understanding through Complex Systems Modeling

提案编号：ps -1101317提案题目：尚普兰湖流域对气候变化的适应：通过复杂系统建模的新认识这项来自佛蒙特州EPSCoR （VT EPSCoR）的研究基础设施改善（RII）提案的重点是通过创建两个中心，即适应气候变化研究中心（RACC）和劳动力发展与多样性中心（CWDD），了解气候变化和土地利用对尚普兰湖盆地的影响。资助的参与者包括约翰逊州立学院（JSC），米德尔伯里学院（MC），圣迈克尔？佛蒙特大学（UVM）和佛蒙特大学（SMC）。佛蒙特社区学院（CCV）是一个没有资助的合作伙伴。该项目将建立跨学科的社会和自然科学家团队，将尚普兰湖流域作为一个受气候变化影响的人类和自然耦合系统进行研究，重点是复杂系统建模。科学家将研究内源性湖内过程（如内部负荷、冰盖和水动力学）与外源性湖内过程（如土地利用变化、雪/雨时间、风暴强度、土地管理）对藻华的相对重要性。科学家将使用广泛的情景测试来研究如何设计和实施适应性管理以应对气候变化和土地利用。生态系统和水研究的中心主题与佛蒙特州科学技术（S&amp；T计划）以及国家和国际利益保持一致。本项目将探讨气候变化和土地利用的相互作用如何改变尚普兰湖流域的水文过程和营养物质运输，并研究由此产生的适应性管理策略的影响。区域资源中心将利用现有的流域研究和生物物理研究，并通过将这些研究与社会经济和治理研究相结合，增加重大价值。该项目将结合广泛的观察和监测，并对两个有影响的流域和10个较小的集水区进行建模。更广泛的影响应对气候和土地利用变化的水资源管理是一个科学问题，在美国和国际上具有广泛的适用性。这个项目吗?S的多尺度方法具有广泛适用的潜力，因为它包括对气候变化、城市/农业变化和社会生态界面等更广泛的全球环境问题的调查。该项目将继续VT？“我们非常成功地开展了面向高中生、教师和本科生的Streams项目，该项目对劳动力发展和鼓励STEM领域未被充分代表的少数族裔追求科学事业产生了重大影响。CWDD将整合劳动力和多元化的努力，并将提供广泛的方法来与公众接触，并与小企业合作，以鼓励全州的经济发展。

ABSTRACTProposal Number: EPS-1101317Proposal Title: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Lake Champlain Basin:New Understanding through Complex Systems ModelingInstitution: University of Vermont & State Agricultural CollegeProject Director: Judith Van HoutenThis Research Infrastructure Improvement (RII) proposal from Vermont EPSCoR (VT EPSCoR) is focused on understanding the effects of changing climate and land use on the Lake Champlain Basin through the creation of two centers, the Center for Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) and the Center for Workforce Development and Diversity (CWDD). Funded participants include Johnson State College (JSC), Middlebury College (MC), St. Michael?s College (SMC), and University of Vermont (UVM). The Community College of Vermont (CCV) is an unfunded partner.The project will build transdisciplinary teams of social and natural scientists to study the Lake Champlain Basin as a coupled human and natural system affected by climate change, with an emphasis on complex systems modeling. Scientists will investigate the relative importance of endogenous in-lake processes (e.g. internal loading, ice cover, and hydrodynamics) versus exogenous to-lake processes (e.g. land use change, snow/rain timing, storm intensity, land management) to algal blooms. Scientists will use extensive scenario testing to investigate how adaptive management can be designed and implemented to respond to climate change and land use. The central theme of ecosystem and water research aligns well with Vermont State Science and technology (S&T plan), as well as national and international interest.Intellectual MeritThis project will address how the interaction of climate change and land use alter hydrological processes and nutrient transport within the Lake Champlain Basin, and investigate the resulting implications for adaptive management strategies. The RACC will leverage existing watershed studies and biophysical and add significant value through its integration of those studies with socio-economic and governance studies. The project will combine extensive observations and monitoring with modeling of two of the contributing watersheds and 10 smaller catchments. Broader ImpactsManagement of water resources in response to climate and land use changes is a scientific issue that has broad applicability across the US and internationally. The project?s multi-scale approach has the potential to be broadly applicable, in that it includes the investigation of broader global environmental issues of climate change, urban/agricultural change, and the socio-ecological interfaces. The project will be continuing VT?s very successful Streams project for outreach to high school students and teachers and undergraduates, which has shown a significant impact in workforce development and in encouraging underrepresented minorities in STEM to pursue science careers. The CWDD will integrate workforce and diversity efforts, and will offer an extensive suite of approaches to outreach to the general public and work with small businesses to encourage economic development across the state.