Modeling the Effectiveness of Interventions in Stopping the Spead of Vector-Borne Diseases

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The goal of the project is to improve the mathematical models used to understand the spread of vector-borne diseases such as the recent Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Africa, the dengue fever (DENV) outbreaks in South America (and Florida), and the continued spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States. Because of the importance of the environment and weather on mosquito-borne epidemics, existing models will be extended to be reactive to environmental changes. For mosquito-borne diseases spread by viruses, there is the possibility that an infected mother can transmit the virus to her eggs and her offspring be born infected. Therefore, vertical transmission will also be included in the modeling and a range of parameters will be identified to determine when vertical transmission is important. These models are analyzed, validated on field data, and undergo a full uncertainty quantification analysis. Mathematical models based on the underlying transmission mechanisms of the disease can help the public health community understand and anticipate the spread of an epidemic and evaluate the potential effectiveness of different approaches for bringing an epidemic under control. The goal is to develop mathematical models to improve our understanding of the essential relationships between the biological, environmental, and mitigation mechanisms that influence the spread of vector-borne diseases. Such models can be used to assess the relative impact of different mitigation efforts to control the spread of an epidemic; saving time, resources, and lives.