Stopping Rule Selection Theory

在这个项目中，主要研究者将开发一个新的理论框架，用于理解决策中的停止规则。停止规则被认为是成功决策的关键组成部分。多年来，已经提出了几个不相关的解释来解释一些观察到的违反最佳停止规则的行为。目前的研究提出了一个统一的解释，这些违规行为的基础上，一个新的停止规则选择（SRS）理论。这个理论的创新之处在于它的出发点是这样的假设：对于任何给定的决策问题，决策者都可以从大量不同类型的决策策略和停止规则中得出结论。SRS理论假设有一个存储区域用于停止规则-所谓的决策操作空间（DOS）-和一个检索机制，用于从DOS中选择停止规则。SRS理论已经显示出很好的适合一些具有挑战性的数据先前发表在相关文献中。拟合是使用模式分析，这是一种新的方法，根据拟合的相对频率观察到的数据模式的预测响应patterns.In更广泛的影响，在研究中获得的知识应该是有用的那些寻求开发或改进处方决策辅助工具。决策辅助通常用于提高人类在复杂工作中的表现，包括医学，航空，国防和商业。

In this project the Principal Investigator will develop a new theoretical framework for understanding stopping rules in decision making. The stopping rule is thought to be a crucial component of successful decision making. Over the years, several unconnected explanations have been proposed to account for some observed violations of optimal stopping rules. The current research proposes a unifying explanation for these violations based on a new stopping rule selection (SRS) theory. This theory is innovative in that it proceeds from the assumption that for any given decision problem, a decision maker draws from a large set of different kinds of decision strategies and stopping rules. The SRS theory hypothesizes that there is a storage area for stopping rules -- the so-called decision operative space (DOS) -- and a retrieval mechanism that is used to select stopping rules from the DOS. The SRS theory has shown good fit to some challenging data previously published in the relevant literature. The fits were achieved using pattern analysis, which is a novel approach based on fitting the relative frequency of observed data patterns to the predicted response patterns.In terms of broader impacts, the knowledge gained in the study should be useful to those who seek to develop or improve prescriptive decision aids. Decision aids are commonly employed to improve human performance in complex endeavors, including medicine, aviation, defense and business.