WSC-Category 2 Collaborative: Robust decision-making for South Florida water resources by ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

WSC-2 类协作：通过生态系统服务评估、水文经济优化和冲突解决建模为南佛罗里达州水资源做出稳健决策

• 批准号: 1204572
• 负责人: David Ho
• 金额: $ 28.9万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1204572&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Robust; decision

Water management in south Florida is characterized by the need to balance multiple objectives. Among the objectives are the maintenance of high groundwater levels to limit seawater intrusion and flood control measures that are also used to mitigate dry-season water shortages. In addition, south Florida's current population of 6 million is projected to grow to 10 million over the next 20 years, and urban water demand must be reliably managed. In this exceptionally vulnerable region, sea level rise and salt water intrusion have already impacted drinking water supplies and threaten the integrity of low-lying and highly-valued built and natural environments as diverse as Miami Beach and the Everglades. Long-term adaptive strategies are needed to ensure sustainable water resources for expanding populations, agriculture, and wetlands that serve multiple functions, including support of Florida's fishing industry. Development of such strategies has been hampered by conflicting stakeholder interests and technical, economic, and political challenges. This project will conduct highly interdisciplinary research, utilizing the expertise of multiple institutions, to investigate the hydrologic, economic, ecologic, and human behavioral dimensions of sustainable water management and land use planning under various climate change, economic, population, and sea level rise scenarios. The research will employ hydro-economic optimization approaches based on robust decision making to develop management strategies that ensure the resilience of water supplies for the built and natural systems, while also accounting for the broad-sector value of water use. Optimization criteria will incorporate the results of project research linking water management, ecological function, and the economic value of ecosystem services. New experimental approaches will be implemented to better understand the impacts of scenario information type and uncertainty on both selection of decision criteria and evaluation of model predictions among individuals and groups of local stakeholders. These experiments are designed to improve understanding of the roles of cognitive and perceptual biases in decision-making when stakeholders examine hydro-economic projections coupled with scenario forecasts. Comparative behavioral analyses of stakeholder evaluations and institutional decision-making will provide unique insights into how information type, information content, and cognitive biases combine to influence risk perception, and how the perceived risks to individual and collective well-being influence scenario selection. Finally, with agency and stakeholder involvement, the project will collaboratively develop recommendations for adaptive water management plans that foster long-term support from the stakeholders. Low-lying coastal regions subject to sea level rise, climate change, and diverse water demands, including growing populations, will benefit from the development of innovative, pragmatic approaches to optimizing the social-ecological benefits of water resources allocation. The research will include novel approaches for dynamically incorporating economics into stakeholder evaluations of adaptive land use and water management strategies. Local, state, and federal agencies responsible for managing south Florida's water resources will benefit from analyses of adaptive schemes that explicitly incorporate uncertainty estimates of potential outcomes. The multiple societies that exist in south Florida, whose options for managing public water resources are limited by climatic, physical, and/or legal constraints, require this type of integrated assessment to promote cooperative decision-making while preparing for uncertain hydro-climatic conditions and socioeconomic futures.

佛罗里达南部的水管理的特点是需要平衡多个目标。这些目标包括维持高地下水位，以限制海水入侵，以及采取防洪措施，以缓解旱季缺水问题。此外，南佛罗里达目前的600万人口预计将在未来20年内增长到1000万，城市用水需求必须得到可靠的管理。在这个极其脆弱的地区，海平面上升和盐水入侵已经影响了饮用水供应，并威胁到迈阿密海滩和大沼泽地等不同低洼和高价值建筑和自然环境的完整性。需要长期的适应性战略，以确保可持续的水资源，扩大人口，农业和湿地，服务于多种功能，包括支持佛罗里达的渔业。这些战略的制定受到利益攸关方利益冲突以及技术、经济和政治挑战的阻碍。该项目将进行高度跨学科的研究，利用多个机构的专业知识，调查各种气候变化，经济，人口和海平面上升情景下可持续水资源管理和土地利用规划的水文，经济，生态和人类行为方面。该研究将采用基于稳健决策的水文经济优化方法，以制定管理战略，确保建筑和自然系统供水的弹性，同时考虑水资源利用的广泛部门价值。优化标准将纳入项目研究的结果，将水管理、生态功能和生态系统服务的经济价值联系起来。将采用新的实验方法，以更好地了解情景信息类型和不确定性对决策标准的选择和当地利益攸关方个人和群体对模型预测的评价的影响。这些实验的目的是提高认知和知觉偏见在决策过程中的作用的理解，当利益相关者检查水利经济预测加上情景预测。利益相关者评估和机构决策的比较行为分析将提供独特的见解，如何信息类型，信息内容和认知偏差联合收割机结合起来，以影响风险的看法，以及如何感知风险的个人和集体的福祉影响情景选择。最后，在机构和利益攸关方的参与下，该项目将合作制定适应性水管理计划的建议，以促进利益攸关方的长期支持。受海平面上升、气候变化和包括人口增长在内的各种水需求影响的低洼沿海地区将受益于制定创新、务实的办法，以优化水资源分配的社会生态效益。该研究将包括新的方法，动态地将经济学纳入利益相关者对适应性土地利用和水资源管理战略的评估。负责管理南佛罗里达水资源的地方、州和联邦机构将受益于对明确纳入潜在结果的不确定性估计的适应性方案的分析。存在于南佛罗里达，其选择管理公共水资源的气候，物理和/或法律的限制，需要这种类型的综合评估，以促进合作决策，同时为不确定的水文气候条件和社会经济的未来做好准备。