WSC-Category 2, Collaborative: Climate and human dynamics as amplifiers of natural change: a framework for vulnerability assessment and mitigation planning

[1209448 .威尔科克]迫切需要确定自然-人类耦合系统中哪些要素对土地利用和气候变化最敏感，因为它们可能对这些因素的变化作出强烈反应。如何识别？热点?对变化的敏感性将使我们能够针对最有效的补救和其他管理措施。该项目将测试和探索一种被称为人类放大自然变化（HANC）的新假设的生态和管理意义，该假设指出，最容易受到人类、气候和其他外部变化影响的景观区域是那些经历最高自然变化率的区域。研究小组将开发一个脆弱性评估的理论框架，并将通过对明尼苏达州河流域（MRB）的深入研究来检验HANC假设，明尼苏达州河流域是中西部北部一个44,000平方公里的农业主导流域。MRB涵盖了极为广泛的自然和人为引起的变化率以及对土地利用做法的敏感性。特别令人感兴趣的是土地利用和河网过程之间复杂的非线性耦合，这已经导致沉积物和营养物质严重受损。在不断变化的人类活动和气候条件下，湄公河流域的水和生态系统服务的未来状况将如何？在许多潜在的土地和水管理方案中，哪一个最有可能产生一个可持续的、有弹性的、繁荣的经济-环境耦合系统？为了回答这些问题，本研究试图：(1)确定当前高产沙率集中在外部变化施加之前经历高自然变化率的地区的程度；(2)研究系统中的阈值和局部特征如何放大和加速变化，以及如何在集成预测建模框架中参数化这种非线性效应；(3)研究地貌系统中人类放大的自然变化（HANC）对MRB生态变化的影响程度；(4)开发方法，将基于hanc的推理纳入决策分析框架，包括一套识别敏感区域的方法，以及有空间针对性的监测活动。更广泛的影响：先前与国家监管机构建立的牢固关系将确保该项目的结果直接影响未来的土地和水政策和管理决策。研究小组将与国家机构密切合作，通过利益攸关方会议、广泛参加的区域会议和信息报告，直接向公众传播新知识。此外，他们将开发一个基于hanc的分析工具箱，用于评估容易发生景观快速变化的地区，从中西部农业景观开始。从这项工作中产生的新知识将用于为科学博物馆有关人类世的展览提供信息，开发创新的K-12环境科学和工程课程，并传播NSF？通过教师培训开展《地球科学与气候素养原则》。该项目支持三个早期职业生涯的pi和培养研究生、本科生和综合博士后。学生在一个跨学科的环境中，由水文学、地貌学、生态学、生物学、工程学和经济学的科学家共同指导。

1209448WilcockThere is a pressing need to identify which elements of the coupled natural-human system are most sensitive to changes in land use and climate in the sense that they are likely to respond strongly to changes in these factors. Means of identifying such ?hot spots? of sensitivity to change would allow us to target remediation and other management measures where they will do the most good. This project will test and explore the ecologic and management implications of a novel hypothesis termed human-amplified natural change (HANC), which states that the areas of the landscape that are most susceptible to human, climatic, and other external changes are those undergoing the highest natural rates of change.The research team will develop a theoretical framework for vulnerability assessment and will test the HANC hypothesis through intensive study of the Minnesota River Basin (MRB), a 44,000 km2 agriculturally-dominated watershed in the upper Midwest. The MRB encompasses an extremely broad spectrum of natural and human-induced rates of change and sensitivity to land-use practices. Of particular interest is the complex nonlinear coupling between land use and river network processes, which has already resulted in severely impaired waters for sediment and nutrients. What will be the future condition of the waters and ecosystem services in the MRB under changing human actions and climatic conditions? Of the many potential land and water management options, which are most likely to produce a sustainable, resilient, and thriving coupled economic-environmental system? To answer such questions, this study seeks to:(1) determine the extent to which current high rates of sediment production are concentrated in areas that were undergoing high rates of natural change before the external changes were imposed; (2) study how thresholds and localized features in the system amplify and accelerate change and how such nonlinear effects can be parameterized in an integrated predictive modeling framework; (3) investigate the extent to which the human-amplified natural changes (HANC) in the geomorphic system contribute to observed ecological changes in the MRB; and (4) develop means to include HANC-based reasoning in decision analysis frameworks, including a suite of methods to identify sensitive regions, along with spatially targeted monitoring activities.Broader Impacts: Strong relationships previously developed with State regulatory agencies will ensure that the results from this project directly influence future land and water policy and management decisions. The research team will disseminate new knowledge directly to the public in close collaboration with State agencies via stakeholder meetings, widely attended regional meetings and informational reports. Further, they will develop a HANC-based analytical toolbox for evaluating areas prone to rapid change in the landscape, beginning with Midwestern agricultural landscapes. New knowledge generated from this work will be used to inform Science Museum exhibits related to the Anthropocene, develop innovative K-12 curricula in environmental science and engineering, and disseminate NSF?s Earth Science and Climate Literacy Principles via teacher training. The project supports three early-career PIs and training of graduate, undergraduate, and ?synthesis-postdoctoral? students in an interdisciplinary environment, co-advised by scientists in hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, biology, engineering, and economics.