Modeling Avian Responses to Climate Change using Evolving Occurrence Models

使用不断演变的事件模型模拟鸟类对气候变化的反应

• 批准号: 1241583
• 负责人: Randall Boone
• 金额: $ 14.15万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-02-01 至 2016-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1241583&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Avian; Responses; Climate; Change

The distributions of bird species are limited by factors of the environment. Different species have different ranges of environmental conditions that they tolerate. Some of the conditions that birds are constrained by will shift as climate changes. In fact, some species are already shifting their ranges toward the poles or to higher elevations. Researchers have used statistical models to relate spatial environmental data and the occurrence of bird species. They then change the data to reflect the way conditions may appear in the future and use the models to predict the ways in which bird species will shift their distributions as a result. This approach has been criticized because it ignores the interactions between species, that species can adapt to new environments, and that some species are better at dispersing than others. A new method that avoids these limitations will be used in this project. Statistical models will be used to predict the occurrence and relative abundance of birds across the United States that build on a long running survey of bird occurrences along with a suite of spatial data. The models will then be incorporated into a simulation model using an agent-based framework, where agents are the group of birds of an individual species that occupy a small part of the landscape. The models that describe the ways in which birds are distributed will be allowed to evolve in response to the environments available and the presence of other species. For example, small changes in the temperature range of a species may occur as it moves into new landscapes. Adjustments will then be made to the simulation model until the distribution of birds is similar to their real, current distributions. Finally, response surfaces that reflect climate change effects will replace those that represent current conditions and the simulations will be continued. The distributions of bird species will thus evolve in response to the new conditions and the results will reflect how bird distributions and communities may change under a future climate, considering interactions between species and the ability of the species themselves to adapt.Models that represent how individuals respond to changing environmental conditions are rare in studies of how species are distributed. The method used here has the potential to address a variety of questions and to make analyses dynamic, with patterns of species distributions developing over time during the computer simulations. The effort will support a PhD candidate who will work with a new team, with new data sets, and learn new research skills. The results will be used in university courses and workshops and to train high school students. Results will be published in journal articles and summarized on a project web site.

鸟类的分布受环境因素的限制。不同的物种对环境条件的耐受性不同。鸟类受到限制的一些条件将随着气候变化而改变。事实上，一些物种已经在将它们的活动范围向两极或更高的海拔转移。研究人员使用统计模型将空间环境数据与鸟类的出现联系起来。然后，他们改变数据，以反映未来可能出现的情况，并使用这些模型来预测鸟类物种将以何种方式改变其分布。这种方法受到了批评，因为它忽视了物种之间的相互作用，物种可以适应新的环境，一些物种比其他物种更善于扩散。在这个项目中将使用一种新的方法来避免这些限制。统计模型将被用来预测美国各地鸟类的发生和相对丰度，这些模型建立在对鸟类发生的长期调查以及一系列空间数据的基础上。然后，这些模型将被合并到使用基于代理的框架的模拟模型中，其中代理是占据一小部分景观的单个物种的鸟类群体。描述鸟类分布方式的模型将被允许根据现有环境和其他物种的存在而进化。例如，当一个物种进入新的景观时，它的温度范围可能会发生微小的变化。然后对模拟模型进行调整，直到鸟类的分布与它们真实的、当前的分布相似。最后，反映气候变化影响的响应面将取代代表当前状况的响应面，模拟将继续进行。因此，鸟类物种的分布将随着新的条件而演变，结果将反映鸟类分布和群落在未来气候下可能发生的变化，考虑到物种之间的相互作用和物种本身的适应能力。在物种分布的研究中，代表个体如何对不断变化的环境条件做出反应的模型很少见。这里使用的方法有可能解决各种问题，并使分析变得动态，在计算机模拟期间，物种分布的模式随着时间的推移而发展。这项工作将支持一位博士生，他将与一个新的团队合作，使用新的数据集，并学习新的研究技能。结果将用于大学课程和研讨会，并用于培训高中生。结果将在期刊文章中发表，并在项目网站上汇总。