The ABCs of Dispersal: Developing an Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach for Estimating Migration Rates from the Distribution of Related Individuals

扩散的基本知识：开发一种近似贝叶斯计算方法，用于根据相关个体的分布来估计迁移率

• 批准号: 1257535
• 负责人: M Zachariah Peery
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-15 至 2016-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1257535&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ABCs; Dispersal; Developing; Approximate; Bayesian

Estimating rates of movements of individual animals among populations and habitats is a critical issue in conservation biology, necessary for identifying high quality habitats and determining if declining populations can be rescued by immigration from other populations. The goal of this project is to develop a novel statistical and genetic framework that would improve estimation of dispersal rates for organisms among populations or habitats. The proposed approach involves translating the spatial distribution of related individuals identified with genetic methods into estimates of migration rates. If, for example, a parent and its offspring occur in two different populations or habitats, a movement event must have occurred. This new methodology will be tested through a study of the movements and demographics of Hoffmann's two-toed sloths and brown-throated three-toed sloths living in a shade-grown agricultural ecosystem in Costa Rica. Several hundred individuals of both species will be captured in shade-grown cacao, intact forest, and cattle pastures; males will be radio-tagged and females will be color-marked in order to estimate birth and death rates in the three habitat types. Small tissue samples will be collected for genetic analyses that will provide information about relatively distantly related individuals and precise estimates of movement rates. Patterns of relatedness among the three habitat types will be used to determine the magnitude and direction of movements, and ultimately determine the value of shade-grown agriculture to these sensitive and charismatic tropical mammals. Shade-grown agriculture is increasingly pointed to as a means for protecting tropical biodiversity, but detailed ecological studies of the benefits of such agricultural practices to sensitive species have not been conducted. Because of their sedentary and obligate arboreal life style, sloths are a useful umbrella species for conservation efforts; if shade-grown agriculture can maintain viable sloth populations within fragmented landscapes then agricultural practices could benefit a range of additional tropical species. The statistical and genetic approach developed in this project will be applicable to a range of species and will be made publically accessible via a freely downloadable software package. This project will strengthen research and training collaborations with Costa Rican researchers and will provide research training and mentoring for two postdoctoral scholars.

估计个体动物在种群和栖息地之间的迁移率是保护生物学中的一个关键问题，对于确定高质量的栖息地和确定来自其他种群的移民是否可以拯救不断下降的种群是必要的。该项目的目标是开发一种新的统计和遗传框架，以改进对生物在种群或生境中的传播率的估计。拟议的方法涉及将用遗传方法确定的相关个体的空间分布转化为迁移率的估计。例如，如果一个亲代和它的后代出现在两个不同的种群或栖息地，那么一定发生了运动事件。这一新方法将通过对生活在哥斯达黎加遮荫种植的农业生态系统中的霍夫曼的两趾树懒和棕色喉咙三趾树懒的活动和人口统计学的研究来检验。这两个物种的数百只个体将被捕获在树荫下种植的可可、完整的森林和牲畜牧场；雄性将被无线电标记，雌性将被彩色标记，以估计三种栖息地的出生和死亡率。将收集小的组织样本进行遗传分析，提供有关相对远亲的个体的信息，并准确估计活动速度。三种栖息地类型之间的关联模式将被用来确定运动的大小和方向，并最终确定遮荫种植的农业对这些敏感和有魅力的热带哺乳动物的价值。遮荫种植的农业越来越多地被认为是保护热带生物多样性的一种手段，但关于这种农业做法对敏感物种的好处的详细生态学研究尚未进行。由于树懒在树上久坐不动的生活方式，它们是保护工作的有用保护伞物种；如果遮荫种植的农业能够在零散的景观中维持有生存能力的树懒种群，那么农业实践可能会使一系列额外的热带物种受益。本项目制定的统计和遗传方法将适用于一系列物种，并将通过一个可免费下载的软件包向公众开放。该项目将加强与哥斯达黎加研究人员的研究和培训合作，并将为两名博士后学者提供研究培训和指导。