A Study of Elevated Convection with Excessive Precipitation

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Elevated convection, in which thunderstorms draw on their energy from instability focused well above the earth's surface, is impactful in terms of its capacity to produce heavy precipitation yet often poorly forecast. Such events are particularly common during the warm season over the mid-Mississippi basin, in close proximity to the principal investigator's home institution. The primary objective of this effort is direct observation of the upper atmosphere prior to, during and after episodes of elevated convection through analysis of special serial radiosonde observations and other means. Radar observations will be exploited to describe storm life cycles, while a variety of observations (both routine and specially collected) will be analyzed and ultimately assimilated by simulations using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) community model to further explore and describe processes responsible for creating environments conducive to outbreaks of elevated convection. Comparative examination of resulting successful and unsuccessful forecasts (including hit, miss, and null events) will serve to more clearly identify sources of forecast error and required improvements, with an emphasis on heavy rainfall and snowfall events. Broader impacts will include uniquely detailed observations of a variety of high-impact precipitation events and direct interface with the forecasting community. Both undergraduate and graduate students will be involved in a wide array of data collection and analysis activities, and result will be integrated across an array of university courses.