Collaborative Research: An innovative network to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

北冰洋海冰的范围、厚度和性质最近发生了重大变化，引起了人们的注意，并对海洋安全和安保、资源管理和开发、政界人士、沿海社区、天气和气候预报员、气候变化研究人员和越来越多的普通公众等不同利益攸关方构成重大挑战。关于季节到年际时间尺度的海冰预报，特别是在夏季和秋季，是特别令人感兴趣的。尽管每个利益攸关方都受到不同优先事项的驱动，但都需要改进对海冰状况的监测、预测和沟通。迄今为止，海冰模拟工作主要侧重于气候尺度(即对温室气体强迫的反应)或支持航行的有针对性的天气预报。季节尺度上的海冰预报是一项挑战，因为：(1)大气和海洋影响的高度变异性，(2)初始化和验证的观测覆盖范围有限和/或不确定性高，(3)当前模式能力的局限性，(4)海冰可预测性的内在限制，以及(5)北极系统以前所未有的方式发生变化。使用不同的方法作出了贡献，从复杂的(部分和完全耦合的大气环流模型和统计关系)到基本的(趋势外推、启发式、公众调查)。展望“将被组织和扩展为一个更有组织、更协调和更正式的工作，重点是解决海冰预报的主要障碍，包括对预报进行严格评估，协调和组织相关观测以进行初始化，对方法进行评估，最后，建立一个组织网络结构，以新的方式管理这些工作和交流成果。这项工作建立在过去四年的经验基础上，并扩展了现有的结构，利用国际范围内的资源和专业知识来帮助应对一系列被美国和国际计划和组织视为优先事项的挑战。智力价值-该项目推进了美国国家科学基金会的目标，即通过创建一个由科学家和利益相关者组成的创新网络来生成、评估和传达北极季节性海冰预报，从而为北极提供更好的预测工具。网络？S的重点是开发评估预报的新方法，综合和比较预报方法的新指标，以及用有针对性的观测初始化预报方法的新方法。最后，该网络将调查如何将不同的预测方法结合起来，以超越较窄方法的预测技能。研究小组将探索如何最好地计划改进季节性预测的观测，以及这些预测如何反过来促进对北冰洋冰盖演变状况的了解。更广泛的影响-改进的北极海冰季节预测将开发和传播，以造福社会。通过培养和协调国际研究人员网络并利用广泛的活动，该项目提供了为利益攸关方量身定做的信息？需要。除了对利益攸关方的信息需求进行严格评估外，该网络还将为关键的海冰变量和预报器制定一个共同的参考框架，为科学界和利益攸关方生成综合数据集和预测领域。还将启动活动，向日益增长的公民科学家互联网社区提供信息并使其参与进来，他们中的许多人已经对北极科学表现出浓厚的兴趣，有能力进行自己的原创和潜在的有价值的分析，并与更广泛的媒体和公共讨论网络建立联系。这些活动将包括研究生和博士后，他们被指导在基础研究和应用研究的交叉点上进行高质量的研究。通过吸引更多的年轻研究人员加入该网络，该项目还解决了对合格专家的重要需求，这些专家可以帮助解决受北极海冰快速变化影响的资源使用和生态系统服务的紧迫问题。

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.