Collaborative Research: An innovative network to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

合作研究：改善北极变化中海冰预测的创新网络

• 批准号: 1304315
• 负责人: Hajo Eicken
• 金额: $ 10.79万
• 依托单位: University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-15 至 2018-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1304315&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; innovative; network; improve

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.

最近北极海冰范围、厚度和性质的重大变化引起了人们的关注，并对不同的利益相关者群体提出了重大挑战，这些利益相关者包括海上安全和安保、资源管理和开发、政治家、沿海社区、天气和气候预报员、气候变化研究人员以及越来越多的公众。从季节到年际时间尺度的海冰预报，尤其是夏季和秋季的海冰预报特别令人感兴趣。尽管每个利益相关者都有不同的优先事项，但都需要改进对海冰状况的监测、预测和通信。迄今为止，海冰建模工作主要集中在气候尺度（即对温室气体强迫的响应）或支持导航的有针对性的天气预报。季节性尺度的海冰预报是一项挑战，因为：(1) 大气和海洋影响的高度可变性，(2) 初始化和验证的观测覆盖范围有限和/或高度不确定性，(3) 当前模型能力的局限性，(4) 海冰可预测性的固有局限性，以及 (5) 北极系统以前所未有的方式发生变化。 SEARCH 海冰展望是四年前临时实施的 时尚，请求自愿捐款，以根据春末（6 月 1 日）的情况估计 9 月海冰范围。人们使用不同的方法做出了贡献，这些方法从复杂的（部分和完全耦合的大气环流模型和统计关系）到基本的（趋势外推、启发式、公众民意调查）。该展望将被组织和扩展为更加结构化、协调和正式的工作，重点是解决海冰预报的关键障碍，包括对预测的严格评估、协调和组织相关观测以进行初始化、方法评估，最后建立一个组织网络结构来管理工作并以新的方式传达结果。这项工作建立在过去四年的经验基础上，并扩展了现有的结构，利用国际范围内的资源和专业知识，帮助解决一系列美国和国际项目和组织视为优先事项的挑战。 智力成果 - 该项目通过创建一个由科学家和利益相关者组成的创新网络来生成、评估和交流北极季节性海冰，推进了 NSF 为北极提供改进的预测工具的目标 预测。该网络的重点是开发评估预测的新方法、用于综合和比较预测方法的新指标以及通过有针对性的观测来初始化预测方法的新方法。最后，该网络将研究如何组合不同的预测方法以超越较窄方法的预测能力。研究小组将探索如何最好地规划观测以改进季节性预测，以及这些预测如何反过来促进对北极海冰覆盖演变状态的了解。更广泛的影响 - 将开发和传播改进的北极海冰季节性预测，以造福社会。通过培育和协调国际研究人员网络并利用广泛的活动，该项目为利益相关者提供了量身定制的信息？需要。除了对利益相关者信息需求进行严格评估外，该网络还将为关键海冰变量和预测变量开发一个通用参考框架，为科学界和利益相关者生成综合数据集和预测字段。还将发起活动，向不断增长的公民科学家互联网社区提供信息并让他们参与其中，其中许多人已经对北极科学表现出浓厚的兴趣，有能力进行自己原创且可能有价值的分析，并与更广泛的媒体和公众讨论网络建立联系。这些活动将包括指导研究生和博士后在基础研究和应用研究的交叉领域进行高质量的研究。通过吸引更多年轻研究人员加入该网络，该项目还满足了对合格专家的重要需求，这些专家可以帮助解决有关受北极海冰快速变化影响的资源利用和生态系统服务的紧迫问题。