Effects of Saharan Dust on African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones

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The primary objective of this research project is to advance understanding of the effects of Saharan mineral dust on the African easterly Jet, African easterly waves, and tropical cyclones. A unified work plan is designed that combines theory, numerical experiments, data assimilation, and model verification. Standard analytical, numerical, and diagnostic methods will be used to execute the plan. A new theoretical framework will be developed whose goal is to illuminate causal relationships between Saharan dust, the African easterly jet, and African easterly waves. The theoretical framework will serve as a tool for interpreting results obtained from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which will be used to carry out comprehensive simulations involving dust-radiative-microphysical interactions. The intellectual merit of the research includes advancing understanding of how Saharan mineral dust operates over the synoptic scale environment to the tropical cyclone scale to affect the path and intensification of tropical cyclones. This research will assess the relative importance dust-radiation and dust-microphysical interactions on tropical cyclone activity, which will lead to improved prediction of TCs.The broader impacts of the research include model validation results with various data sets, which is critical to assessing model performance and forecasts. This award will develop a new understanding of the effects of dust on tropical cyclones, which can be used to help improve existing diagnostic and statistical tools for tropical cyclone forecasts. Additionally, this award will provide research training for both undergraduate and graduate students.