Collaborative Research: Measuring Social Vulnerability - Reducing Uncertainty and Validating Indicators

这项合作研究的目标是通过减少输入数据和方法中的不确定性以及验证输出度量来提高社会脆弱性指标的可靠性。社会脆弱性越来越受到地方、州和联邦各级灾害规划者的关注，因为他们寻求减少自然灾害的不利影响。然而，目前人们对主要脆弱性指标的稳健性了解太少，无论是建立这些指标的方法，还是它们充分反映现实世界条件的能力。迫切需要改进方法，以提高社会脆弱性指标的精确度和准确性。如果没有这样的进展，在减灾、备灾和恢复中使用社会脆弱性指标可能会误导决策。该项目以美国东南部的一个研究区域为基础，将开发新的区域化程序，并将全球敏感性分析和多元回归应用于人口普查数据输入和输出脆弱性指标。这项研究有望对社会脆弱性建模中的关键输入和决策点、结果指标与观测到的灾害结果的一致性程度以及社会脆弱性建模中的不确定性的影响产生新的理解。通过缩小脆弱性模型与现实世界实践之间的现有差距，改进的社会脆弱性指标将允许更好地进行灾害规划和干预，以考虑到最脆弱的人口。该项目具有巨大的潜力，可以改变衡量社会对灾害的脆弱性的主导方法。最后确定的方法将通过互联网地理信息系统应用程序向研究人员和公众广泛提供，该应用程序生成用户可定制的脆弱性指数。改进后的脆弱性指标还将通过与研究团队的现有关系与州和联邦灾难规划者共享。这项研究有助于通过研究生和本科生的直接参与来培训下一代危害研究人员，包括那些来自历来在研究生研究和教育中代表性不足的群体。将通过为探讨城市地理以及灾害与社会之间的相互作用的现有课程开发学习模块，将项目成果纳入课堂。

The objective of this collaborative research study is to improve the reliability of social vulnerability indicators by reducing uncertainties in input data and methods, and validating output metrics. Social vulnerability has been receiving increasing attention by disaster planners at local, state, and federal levels as they seek to reduce adverse impacts of natural hazards. Yet far too little is currently understood about the robustness of the leading vulnerability indicators, both in terms of the approaches used to build them and their ability to adequately represent real world conditions. There is a critical need for methodological advancements to improve the precision and accuracy of social vulnerability indicators. Without such advancements, the use of social vulnerability indicators in disaster mitigation, preparedness, and recovery could mislead decision-making. Based on a study area of the Southeast U.S., the project will develop novel regionalization routines and apply global sensitivity analysis and multiple regression to census data inputs and output vulnerability indicators. The research is expected to generate new understanding of the critical inputs and decision points in social vulnerability modeling, the level of agreement of resultant indicators with observed disaster outcomes, and the influence of uncertainty in social vulnerability modeling. By narrowing the existing gap between vulnerability models and real-world practice, improved social vulnerability indicators will allow for better disaster planning and interventions that account for the most vulnerable populations.The project has great potential to transform dominant approaches for the measurement of social vulnerability to hazards. The finalized methodology will be made widely accessible to both researchers and the public through an internet-GIS application that generates user-customizable vulnerability indices. The improved vulnerability metrics will also be shared with state and federal disaster planners through existing relationships with the research team. The study contributes to training the next generation of hazards researchers through the direct involvement of graduate and undergraduate students, including those from groups historically underrepresented in graduate research and education. The project findings will be integrated into the classroom through the development of learning modules for existing courses that explore urban geography and interactions between hazards and society.