Collaborative Research EaSM-3: Local and Remote Regional Climate Responses to Regional Forcings from Short-Lived Climate Forcers

这一合作项目的目标是审查区域扰动对低密度碳氢化合物(如对流层气溶胶、对流层臭氧和甲烷)的本地和远程影响，这些扰动将是未来几十年区域气候变化的主要驱动因素。有证据表明，SLCF排放的区域气候影响可能是显著的，这项研究将增进对这些影响的规模、空间格局和统计意义以及造成这些结果的过程的理解。通过这项研究所获得的知识可以向气候评估界和决策者通报为减少低硫氟氯化碳排放而采取的额外行动的后果。将进行长期的控制实验，为显著性分析提供基线和统计基础，并研究区域气候对SLCFs及其前兆的响应，这些响应是由这种控制状态的一系列扰动确定的。使用三个最先进的地球系统模型(ESM)，将研究短期气候作用力中区域扰动对气候和大气组成影响的可靠估计。将建立气候作用力与气候影响之间关系的统计模拟器，采用模式比例尺或统计模拟器方法。这些模拟器将能够在各种未来排放情景下进行综合评估和/或影响研究，从而能够探索未来SLCF排放的替代选择下的区域气候影响。

The goal of this collaborative project is to examine local and remote impacts of regional perturbations in SLCFs (e.g., tropospheric aerosols, tropospheric ozone and methane), that will be key drivers of regional climate changes over the next several decades. There is evidence that the regional climate effects of SLCF emissions can be significant, and this study will enhance understanding of the magnitude, spatial pattern and statistical significance of these influences as well as the processes responsible for these outcomes . Knowledge generated through this study can inform the climate assessment community and decision-makers about the consequences of additional actions to mitigate emissions of SLCFs. A long control experiment will be undertaken to provide the baseline and statistical basis for significance analysis as well as study regional climate responses to SLCFs and their precursors determined by a series of perturbations from this control state. Using three state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), robust estimates of the climate and atmospheric composition impacts from regional perturbations in short-lived climate forcers will be studied. Statistical emulators of the relationships between climate forcers and climate impacts following a pattern scaling or statistical emulators approach will be built. These emulators will enable integrated assessment and/or impacts studies under a variety of future emission scenarios, allowing exploration of regional climate impacts under alternative choices of future SLCF emissions.