Collaborative Research EaSM-3: Local and Remote Regional Climate Responses to Regional Forcings from Short-Lived Climate Forcers

该合作项目的目标是研究SLCF中区域扰动的本地和远程影响（例如，对流层气溶胶、对流层臭氧和甲烷），这将是今后几十年区域气候变化的主要驱动因素。有证据表明，SLCF排放的区域气候影响可能是显着的，这项研究将提高这些影响的规模，空间格局和统计意义，以及负责这些结果的过程的理解。 通过这项研究产生的知识可以告知气候评估界和决策者关于减少SLCF排放的额外行动的后果。将进行一个长期的控制实验，以提供基线和统计基础的显着性分析，以及研究区域气候响应SLCFs及其前体确定的一系列扰动，从这个控制状态。使用三个国家的最先进的地球系统模式（ESM），气候和大气成分的影响，从区域扰动的短期气候强迫的稳健估计将进行研究。将按照模式缩放或统计模拟器方法建立气候强迫因素和气候影响之间关系的统计模拟器。这些模拟器将能够在各种未来排放情景下进行综合评估和/或影响研究，从而能够在未来SLCF排放的替代选择下探索区域气候影响。

The goal of this collaborative project is to examine local and remote impacts of regional perturbations in SLCFs (e.g., tropospheric aerosols, tropospheric ozone and methane), that will be key drivers of regional climate changes over the next several decades. There is evidence that the regional climate effects of SLCF emissions can be significant, and this study will enhance understanding of the magnitude, spatial pattern and statistical significance of these influences as well as the processes responsible for these outcomes . Knowledge generated through this study can inform the climate assessment community and decision-makers about the consequences of additional actions to mitigate emissions of SLCFs. A long control experiment will be undertaken to provide the baseline and statistical basis for significance analysis as well as study regional climate responses to SLCFs and their precursors determined by a series of perturbations from this control state. Using three state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), robust estimates of the climate and atmospheric composition impacts from regional perturbations in short-lived climate forcers will be studied. Statistical emulators of the relationships between climate forcers and climate impacts following a pattern scaling or statistical emulators approach will be built. These emulators will enable integrated assessment and/or impacts studies under a variety of future emission scenarios, allowing exploration of regional climate impacts under alternative choices of future SLCF emissions.