Collaborative Research EaSM-3: Local and Remote Regional Climate Responses to Regional Forcings from Short-Lived Climate Forcers

这一合作项目的目标是研究slcf区域扰动（例如对流层气溶胶、对流层臭氧和甲烷）的局部和远程影响，这将是未来几十年区域气候变化的关键驱动因素。有证据表明，SLCF排放的区域气候效应可能是显著的，本研究将加强对这些影响的幅度、空间格局和统计显著性以及导致这些结果的过程的理解。通过本研究产生的知识可以使气候评估界和决策者了解为减少低碳碳排放而采取额外行动的后果。将进行一项长期的控制试验，为显著性分析提供基线和统计基础，并研究区域气候对slcf及其前体的响应，这些响应是由该控制状态的一系列扰动决定的。利用三个最先进的地球系统模式（esm），将研究短期气候力的区域扰动对气候和大气成分影响的可靠估计。将建立气候强迫和气候影响之间关系的统计模拟器，采用模式标度或统计模拟器方法。这些模拟器将能够在各种未来排放情景下进行综合评估和/或影响研究，从而探索未来SLCF排放替代选择下的区域气候影响。

The goal of this collaborative project is to examine local and remote impacts of regional perturbations in SLCFs (e.g., tropospheric aerosols, tropospheric ozone and methane), that will be key drivers of regional climate changes over the next several decades. There is evidence that the regional climate effects of SLCF emissions can be significant, and this study will enhance understanding of the magnitude, spatial pattern and statistical significance of these influences as well as the processes responsible for these outcomes . Knowledge generated through this study can inform the climate assessment community and decision-makers about the consequences of additional actions to mitigate emissions of SLCFs. A long control experiment will be undertaken to provide the baseline and statistical basis for significance analysis as well as study regional climate responses to SLCFs and their precursors determined by a series of perturbations from this control state. Using three state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), robust estimates of the climate and atmospheric composition impacts from regional perturbations in short-lived climate forcers will be studied. Statistical emulators of the relationships between climate forcers and climate impacts following a pattern scaling or statistical emulators approach will be built. These emulators will enable integrated assessment and/or impacts studies under a variety of future emission scenarios, allowing exploration of regional climate impacts under alternative choices of future SLCF emissions.