US-Canada Planning Visit: Building a Transboundary Research Program to Understand the Influence of Climate Change on Southern Range Limits

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Climate change will profoundly influence the distribution and abundance of species across the planet. Cold-adapted species may be especially prone to retract their range at the southern edge of their distribution as the climate warms, but our understanding of possible range shifts for this group is incomplete. Within North America, addressing these effects on these southern populations is additionally complicated by the fact that southern range limits for many cold-adapted species fall along the U.S.-Canada border. A joint U.S.-Canada research collaboration that addresses the influence of climate change on southern populations of Canada lynx will develop from this project. This project will have theoretical significance in terms of increasing our knowledge regarding what limits the geographic range of species, as well as applied conservation relevance, by providing improved predictions of response to climate change for a threatened predator. Moreover, this transboundary collaboration will increase the scope and importance of subsequent research on Canada lynx, as well as provide a model for cross-border research that can be applied to other species.Predicting the consequences of a changing climate for the distribution and abundance of species remains a key challenge in ecology. Simple models that predict how the range of a species will shift in the future based on changing climatic conditions are commonly applied, but such models are often inaccurate because they lack ecological realism. The challenge of predicting species response to climate change is particularly difficult at the southern range limits of species, where climate change impacts are poorly understood and complex. The ultimate goal of this project will be to examine the influence of climate, biotic interactions (competition and predation), and population spatial structure on southern range limits of Canada lynx. This international collaboration will build a highly coordinated team of experts, with complementary expertise and datasets, which will allow for meaningful transboundary research and conservation. As a result, the products that emerge from the project will provide guidelines for a research strategy that will furnish new insights into the biology of southern lynx populations.