US-Canada Planning Visit: Building a Transboundary Research Program to Understand the Influence of Climate Change on Southern Range Limits

气候变化将深刻影响地球上物种的分布和丰富程度。随着气候变暖，适应寒冷的物种可能特别容易在其分布的南缘撤回它们的活动范围，但我们对这一群体可能的活动范围转移的理解是不完整的。在北美，由于许多适应寒冷的物种的南部活动范围限制位于美国和加拿大的边界，解决这些对南部种群的影响变得更加复杂。美国和加拿大的联合研究合作将在这个项目的基础上发展起来，以解决气候变化对加拿大山猫南部种群的影响。这个项目将具有理论意义，通过为受到威胁的捕食者提供更好的气候变化反应预测，增加我们关于什么限制物种地理范围的知识，以及应用保护相关性。此外，这种跨界合作将扩大后续加拿大山猫研究的范围和重要性，并为可应用于其他物种的跨境研究提供一个模式。预测气候变化对物种分布和丰度的影响仍然是生态学中的一个关键挑战。根据不断变化的气候条件预测物种范围未来如何变化的简单模型是常用的，但这种模型往往不准确，因为它们缺乏生态现实主义。预测物种对气候变化的反应的挑战在物种的南部范围内尤其困难，因为那里对气候变化的影响了解得很少，而且很复杂。这个项目的最终目标将是研究气候、生物相互作用(竞争和捕食)和种群空间结构对加拿大山猫南部范围的影响。这一国际合作将建立一支高度协调的专家团队，拥有互补的专业知识和数据集，这将使有意义的跨界研究和保护成为可能。因此，该项目产生的产品将为研究战略提供指导，为南方山猫种群的生物学提供新的见解。

Climate change will profoundly influence the distribution and abundance of species across the planet. Cold-adapted species may be especially prone to retract their range at the southern edge of their distribution as the climate warms, but our understanding of possible range shifts for this group is incomplete. Within North America, addressing these effects on these southern populations is additionally complicated by the fact that southern range limits for many cold-adapted species fall along the U.S.-Canada border. A joint U.S.-Canada research collaboration that addresses the influence of climate change on southern populations of Canada lynx will develop from this project. This project will have theoretical significance in terms of increasing our knowledge regarding what limits the geographic range of species, as well as applied conservation relevance, by providing improved predictions of response to climate change for a threatened predator. Moreover, this transboundary collaboration will increase the scope and importance of subsequent research on Canada lynx, as well as provide a model for cross-border research that can be applied to other species.Predicting the consequences of a changing climate for the distribution and abundance of species remains a key challenge in ecology. Simple models that predict how the range of a species will shift in the future based on changing climatic conditions are commonly applied, but such models are often inaccurate because they lack ecological realism. The challenge of predicting species response to climate change is particularly difficult at the southern range limits of species, where climate change impacts are poorly understood and complex. The ultimate goal of this project will be to examine the influence of climate, biotic interactions (competition and predation), and population spatial structure on southern range limits of Canada lynx. This international collaboration will build a highly coordinated team of experts, with complementary expertise and datasets, which will allow for meaningful transboundary research and conservation. As a result, the products that emerge from the project will provide guidelines for a research strategy that will furnish new insights into the biology of southern lynx populations.