Workshop - Past as Prologue: Holocene Climate as Context for Future Climate Change; Mount Hood, Oregon; October 14-16, 2014

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The Holocene, which covers the entire time span of human civilization, stands out as an interval of relative climate stability. Model projections indicate that 21st century global-average warming will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions (Marcott et al., 2013), producing a climate state not previously experienced by human societies. A major goal of the paleoclimate community has been to develop a longer-term perspective on climate change, and provide context for future warming beyond the instrumental record. Given that the Holocene is the closest analog for today's climate, continued, detailed analyses of the Earth System over this time frame will provide information relevant to future global climate change to scientists, policy makers, and the general public.This workshop will engage ~40 data collectors and modelers working on reconstructions of climate, ice, atmosphere, and ocean variability of the past 11,500 years. The objectives of the workshop are threefold: bring together key personnel working on the Holocene epoch to discuss and identify the past, present, and future directions of research on this interval; establish collaborations and networking among the various groups to facilitate future and ongoing research plans, which will be formalized as a new Past Global Changes (PAGES) Holocene working group; and propose a publishable data-model synthesis and statistical analysis for the Holocene to guide future research. The convenors will strive to bring young and underrepresented scientists to the meeting whose attendance would not be possible without support from this award.