Workshop - Past as Prologue: Holocene Climate as Context for Future Climate Change; Mount Hood, Oregon; October 14-16, 2014

研讨会 - 过去作为序幕：全新世气候作为未来气候变化的背景；

• 批准号: 1449148
• 负责人: Jeremy Shakun
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Boston College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1449148&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Workshop; Past; Prologue; Holocene; Climate

The Holocene, which covers the entire time span of human civilization, stands out as an interval of relative climate stability. Model projections indicate that 21st century global-average warming will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions (Marcott et al., 2013), producing a climate state not previously experienced by human societies. A major goal of the paleoclimate community has been to develop a longer-term perspective on climate change, and provide context for future warming beyond the instrumental record. Given that the Holocene is the closest analog for today's climate, continued, detailed analyses of the Earth System over this time frame will provide information relevant to future global climate change to scientists, policy makers, and the general public.This workshop will engage ~40 data collectors and modelers working on reconstructions of climate, ice, atmosphere, and ocean variability of the past 11,500 years. The objectives of the workshop are threefold: bring together key personnel working on the Holocene epoch to discuss and identify the past, present, and future directions of research on this interval; establish collaborations and networking among the various groups to facilitate future and ongoing research plans, which will be formalized as a new Past Global Changes (PAGES) Holocene working group; and propose a publishable data-model synthesis and statistical analysis for the Holocene to guide future research. The convenors will strive to bring young and underrepresented scientists to the meeting whose attendance would not be possible without support from this award.

全新世覆盖了人类文明的整个时间跨度，是气候相对稳定的时期。模型预测表明，21世纪全球平均变暖将大大超过甚至最温暖的全新世条件(Marcott等人，2013年)，产生人类社会以前从未经历过的气候状态。古气候界的一个主要目标是对气候变化制定更长期的观点，并为未来变暖提供超出工具记录的背景。鉴于全新世是与当今气候最相似的时期，继续对这一时间框架内的地球系统进行详细的分析，将为科学家、政策制定者和普通公众提供与未来全球气候变化相关的信息。这次研讨会将有大约40名数据收集者和建模人员参与重建过去11,500年来的气候、冰、大气和海洋变异性。研讨会的目标有三个：聚集研究全新世时期的主要人员，讨论和确定过去、现在和未来在这一时段的研究方向；在不同小组之间建立合作和联网，以促进未来和正在进行的研究计划，该计划将正式成为一个新的过去全球变化(PAGE)全新世工作组；以及提出一个可发表的全新世数据模型综合和统计分析，以指导未来的研究。召集人将努力让年轻和代表性不足的科学家参加会议，如果没有这个奖项的支持，他们是不可能出席的。