Workshop - Past as Prologue: Holocene Climate as Context for Future Climate Change; Mount Hood, Oregon; October 14-16, 2014

全新世覆盖了整个人类文明史，是一个气候相对稳定的时期。模式预测表明，21世纪全球平均变暖将大大超过最温暖的全新世条件（Marcott et al., 2013），产生人类社会从未经历过的气候状态。古气候学界的一个主要目标是建立一个关于气候变化的长期视角，并为仪器记录之外的未来变暖提供背景。考虑到全新世是当今气候的最接近的模拟，对地球系统在这一时间段内的持续、详细的分析将为科学家、决策者和公众提供与未来全球气候变化相关的信息。本次研讨会将有大约40位数据收集者和建模者参与，他们致力于重建过去11500年的气候、冰、大气和海洋变化。研讨会的目标有三个：汇集全新世研究的主要人员，讨论和确定这一时期的过去、现在和未来的研究方向；在各个小组之间建立合作和网络，以促进未来和正在进行的研究计划，这将正式成为一个新的过去全球变化（PAGES）全新世工作组；并提出了一个可发表的全新世数据模型综合和统计分析，以指导未来的研究。召集人将努力把年轻和代表性不足的科学家带到会议上，如果没有这个奖项的支持，他们是不可能出席会议的。

The Holocene, which covers the entire time span of human civilization, stands out as an interval of relative climate stability. Model projections indicate that 21st century global-average warming will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions (Marcott et al., 2013), producing a climate state not previously experienced by human societies. A major goal of the paleoclimate community has been to develop a longer-term perspective on climate change, and provide context for future warming beyond the instrumental record. Given that the Holocene is the closest analog for today's climate, continued, detailed analyses of the Earth System over this time frame will provide information relevant to future global climate change to scientists, policy makers, and the general public.This workshop will engage ~40 data collectors and modelers working on reconstructions of climate, ice, atmosphere, and ocean variability of the past 11,500 years. The objectives of the workshop are threefold: bring together key personnel working on the Holocene epoch to discuss and identify the past, present, and future directions of research on this interval; establish collaborations and networking among the various groups to facilitate future and ongoing research plans, which will be formalized as a new Past Global Changes (PAGES) Holocene working group; and propose a publishable data-model synthesis and statistical analysis for the Holocene to guide future research. The convenors will strive to bring young and underrepresented scientists to the meeting whose attendance would not be possible without support from this award.