Workshop - Past as Prologue: Holocene Climate as Context for Future Climate Change; Mount Hood, Oregon; October 14-16, 2014

研讨会 - 过去作为序幕：全新世气候作为未来气候变化的背景；

• 批准号: 1449148
• 负责人: Jeremy Shakun
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Boston College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1449148&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Workshop; Past; Prologue; Holocene; Climate

The Holocene, which covers the entire time span of human civilization, stands out as an interval of relative climate stability. Model projections indicate that 21st century global-average warming will substantially exceed even the warmest Holocene conditions (Marcott et al., 2013), producing a climate state not previously experienced by human societies. A major goal of the paleoclimate community has been to develop a longer-term perspective on climate change, and provide context for future warming beyond the instrumental record. Given that the Holocene is the closest analog for today's climate, continued, detailed analyses of the Earth System over this time frame will provide information relevant to future global climate change to scientists, policy makers, and the general public.This workshop will engage ~40 data collectors and modelers working on reconstructions of climate, ice, atmosphere, and ocean variability of the past 11,500 years. The objectives of the workshop are threefold: bring together key personnel working on the Holocene epoch to discuss and identify the past, present, and future directions of research on this interval; establish collaborations and networking among the various groups to facilitate future and ongoing research plans, which will be formalized as a new Past Global Changes (PAGES) Holocene working group; and propose a publishable data-model synthesis and statistical analysis for the Holocene to guide future research. The convenors will strive to bring young and underrepresented scientists to the meeting whose attendance would not be possible without support from this award.

全新世涵盖了人类文明的整个时间跨度，它是相对气候稳定的间隔。模型预测表明，即使是最温暖的全新世也将超过21世纪全球平均水平的变暖（Marcott等，2013），这会产生人类社会以前未经历的气候状态。古气候社区的一个主要目标是对气候变化的长期观点发展，并为未来的升温提供了超越乐器记录的环境。鉴于全新世是当今气候的最接近的类似物，在这个时间范围内对地球系统的持续，详细的分析将为科学家，政策制定者和公众提供与未来的全球气候变化有关的信息。该研讨会将与40个数据收集者和建模者互动，从事气候，冰，冰，冰原和海洋可变性的过去11,500年的杂物。研讨会的目标是三重的：将在全新世时期工作的关键人员汇集在一起​​，讨论和识别此间隔的研究的过去，现在和将来的方向；在各个小组之间建立合作和网络，以促进未来和正在进行的研究计划，该计划将正式化为新的全球变化（页面）全新世工作组；并为全新世提出了可发布的数据模型合成和统计分析，以指导未来的研究。召集人将努力将年轻和代表性不足的科学家带入会议，如果没有该奖项的支持，他们的出勤将是不可能的。