Collaborative Research: Multi-Scale Modeling of Public Perceptions of Heat Wave Risk

合作研究：公众对热浪风险认知的多尺度建模

• 批准号: 1459872
• 负责人: Jennifer Marlon
• 金额: $ 22.31万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-05-01 至 2018-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1459872&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Multi; Scale; Modeling

Collaborative Research: Multi-scale Modeling of Public Perceptions of Heat Wave RiskExtreme heat events are currently the leading weather-related cause of death in the U.S. and have numerous impacts on important social systems including food, water, energy and infrastructure. It is vital to understand how both the public at large and vulnerable populations perceive the risks of extreme heat, how they decide to take action to mitigate these risks, and how their prior experiences shape future responses. People can take action to reduce the health risks of extreme heat, including the use of fans and air conditioning, proper hydration, and avoiding overexertion, but they must first be aware of the risks and appropriate mitigation behaviors. This research project will identify the psychological, social, cultural, and geographic factors that are associated with public perceptions of extreme heat risks, map these risk perceptions at high resolution across the United States, and analyze how vulnerability to extreme heat events corresponds with public risk perceptions. The results will enable emergency managers and policymakers to precisely target preparedness efforts, risk communication strategies, and other resources to protect vulnerable populations from harm.Little is known about the factors that influence risk perceptions of heat waves, even though such perceptions are known to be a key determinant of how people respond to environmental hazards. To investigate the factors and context that shape public risk perceptions and responses to heat waves, we will conduct a nationally representative survey over the duration of the warm season (May-September) in the U.S. The data will be used to create a spatially explicit statistical model to identify factors related to heat wave risk perceptions, including personal experience with heat waves, local climate, land cover, and socioeconomic variables at the individual, neighborhood, and regional scales. Research on other hazards suggests that recent personal experience is likely to play a major role in risk perception, along with individual-level factors, such as age and gender. Contextual factors, such as location relative to urban heat islands, may amplify risk perceptions. Results from the statistical model will be applied to create a high-resolution national map of risk perceptions at the county and census tract levels, and model projections will subsequently be validated by independent surveys.

合作研究：极端高温事件目前是美国与天气相关的主要死亡原因，对食品、水、能源和基础设施等重要社会系统产生了众多影响。重要的是要了解公众和弱势群体如何看待极端高温的风险，他们如何决定采取行动来减轻这些风险，以及他们以前的经验如何影响未来的应对措施。人们可以采取行动来减少极端高温的健康风险，包括使用风扇和空调，适当补水，避免过度劳累，但他们必须首先意识到风险和适当的缓解行为。该研究项目将确定与公众对极端高温风险的看法相关的心理，社会，文化和地理因素，在美国各地以高分辨率绘制这些风险认知图，并分析极端高温事件的脆弱性如何与公众风险认知相对应。研究结果将使应急管理人员和政策制定者能够准确地针对准备工作、风险沟通策略和其他资源，以保护弱势群体免受伤害。尽管人们对热浪风险感知的影响因素知之甚少，但这种感知是人们如何应对环境灾害的关键决定因素。为了调查影响公众对热浪的风险认知和反应的因素和背景，我们将在暖季期间进行一项具有全国代表性的调查这些数据将用于创建一个空间上明确的统计模型，以确定与热浪风险感知相关的因素，包括热浪的个人经验，当地气候，土地覆盖，以及个人、社区和区域规模的社会经济变量。对其他危险的研究表明，近期的个人经历可能在风险认知中发挥重要作用，沿着个人层面的因素，如年龄和性别。背景因素，如相对于城市热岛的位置，可能会放大风险感知。统计模型的结果将用于绘制国家和人口普查区两级的高分辨率风险感知全国地图，随后将通过独立调查验证模型预测。