DMUU: DCDC III: Transformational Solutions for Urban Water Sustainability Transitions in the Colorado River Basin

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This collaborative research group will generate the analytical framework and empirical results necessary to theorize environmental decision making under uncertainty for urban water systems. One main concern about environmental uncertainties for cities in the Colorado River Basin is the anticipated impact on water resources. Possible impacts, such as rising temperatures, changes in the amount and timing of precipitation, and increased variability, likely will reduce renewable surface and groundwater supplies and diminish water quality leading to widespread but uneven risks. The projected biophysical impacts of environmental change are conditioned by and interact with land-use changes, population dynamics, economic development, and water-management decisions. Managing transitions toward urban water sustainability will require innovative approaches to water governance that are anticipatory, adaptable, just, and evidence-supported. This collaborative group includes a transdisciplinary team of social, behavioral, economic, and sustainability scientists working in close collaboration with stakeholders. A diverse group of undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral scholars will be educated and trained with a focus on key competencies in sustainability through real-world sustainability research and education experiences. The collaborative group will build and strengthen networks of scientists and decision makers that improve the relevance of scientific knowledge for decisions and foster social learning among diverse perspectives.Drawing from use-inspired sustainability science and decision making under uncertainty, the investigators will address the overarching question: Given environmental and societal uncertainties, how can cities dependent on the Colorado River Basin develop transformational solutions to implement water sustainability transitions? This research program is comprised of four Integrated Project Areas: 1) Regional environmental and land-use changes as biophysical drivers that affect decision making; 2) Actors, institutions, and governance as socioeconomic drivers that affect decision making; 3) Simulation modeling, visual analytics, and scenarios for knowledge integration and exchange; and 4) Evidence-supported transition strategies toward sustainable water governance. This approach enables the investigators to evaluate how urban water system decisions are affected by environmental and land use changes conditioned by and interacting with social, institutional, and economic processes; model, simulate, visualize, and explore alternative futures in complex social-ecological-technical systems; and conduct comparative studies to develop scientific knowledge with explicit consideration of specific contextual factors and generalizable patterns. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.