DMUU: DCDC III: Transformational Solutions for Urban Water Sustainability Transitions in the Colorado River Basin

这个合作研究小组将产生必要的分析框架和经验结果，以对不确定条件下的城市供水系统的环境决策进行理论化。对科罗拉多河流域城市环境不确定性的一个主要担忧是对水资源的预期影响。可能产生的影响，如气温上升、降雨量和时间的变化以及变化性的增加，可能会减少可再生的地表水和地下水供应，降低水质，导致广泛但不均衡的风险。预计的环境变化的生物物理影响受土地利用变化、人口动态、经济发展和水资源管理决策的制约和相互作用。管理向城市水可持续发展的过渡将需要具有预见性、适应性、公正性和证据支持的水治理创新方法。这个协作小组包括一个由社会、行为、经济和可持续发展科学家组成的跨学科团队，与利益相关者密切合作。将通过现实世界的可持续性研究和教育经验，对不同的本科生、研究生和博士后学者进行教育和培训，重点关注可持续发展方面的关键能力。该合作小组将建立和加强科学家和决策者的网络，以提高科学知识与决策的相关性，并促进不同视角之间的社会学习。研究人员将从受使用启发的可持续发展科学和不确定情况下的决策，解决首要问题：鉴于环境和社会的不确定性，依赖科罗拉多河流域的城市如何制定转型解决方案，以实现水的可持续性过渡？该研究计划由四个综合项目领域组成：1)作为生物物理驱动因素的区域环境和土地利用变化影响决策；2)作为影响决策的社会经济驱动因素的行动者、机构和治理；3)模拟建模、可视化分析以及知识整合和交流的情景；以及4)证据支持的向可持续水治理过渡战略。这种方法使研究人员能够评估受社会、制度和经济过程制约和相互作用的环境和土地利用变化对城市水系统决策的影响；对复杂的社会-生态-技术系统中的替代未来进行建模、模拟、可视化和探索；并进行比较研究，在明确考虑特定背景因素和概括模式的情况下发展科学知识。这个合作小组项目由NSF社会、行为和经济科学局通过其在不确定情况下的决策(DMUU)资助机会提供支持。

This collaborative research group will generate the analytical framework and empirical results necessary to theorize environmental decision making under uncertainty for urban water systems. One main concern about environmental uncertainties for cities in the Colorado River Basin is the anticipated impact on water resources. Possible impacts, such as rising temperatures, changes in the amount and timing of precipitation, and increased variability, likely will reduce renewable surface and groundwater supplies and diminish water quality leading to widespread but uneven risks. The projected biophysical impacts of environmental change are conditioned by and interact with land-use changes, population dynamics, economic development, and water-management decisions. Managing transitions toward urban water sustainability will require innovative approaches to water governance that are anticipatory, adaptable, just, and evidence-supported. This collaborative group includes a transdisciplinary team of social, behavioral, economic, and sustainability scientists working in close collaboration with stakeholders. A diverse group of undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral scholars will be educated and trained with a focus on key competencies in sustainability through real-world sustainability research and education experiences. The collaborative group will build and strengthen networks of scientists and decision makers that improve the relevance of scientific knowledge for decisions and foster social learning among diverse perspectives.Drawing from use-inspired sustainability science and decision making under uncertainty, the investigators will address the overarching question: Given environmental and societal uncertainties, how can cities dependent on the Colorado River Basin develop transformational solutions to implement water sustainability transitions? This research program is comprised of four Integrated Project Areas: 1) Regional environmental and land-use changes as biophysical drivers that affect decision making; 2) Actors, institutions, and governance as socioeconomic drivers that affect decision making; 3) Simulation modeling, visual analytics, and scenarios for knowledge integration and exchange; and 4) Evidence-supported transition strategies toward sustainable water governance. This approach enables the investigators to evaluate how urban water system decisions are affected by environmental and land use changes conditioned by and interacting with social, institutional, and economic processes; model, simulate, visualize, and explore alternative futures in complex social-ecological-technical systems; and conduct comparative studies to develop scientific knowledge with explicit consideration of specific contextual factors and generalizable patterns. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) funding opportunity.