Collaborative Research: Dynamics and Predictability of East and Central Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events

合作研究：东太平洋和中太平洋厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）事件的动力学和可预测性

• 批准号: 1463643
• 负责人: Matthew Newman
• 金额: $ 26.88万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-06-15 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1463643&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Dynamics; Predictability; East

The broader impacts of this collaborative project include furthering understanding of different types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their predictability, and the training of two graduate students, This project will further our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of Central Pacific and East Pacific ENSO events. The research team has extensive experience in using observational constrained approaches as well as in undertaking simulations using a suite of physical models. The following scientific questions will be addressed: What dynamical processes are responsible for the evolution of initial structures into a particular type of ENSO event? Are there physical mechanisms that can explain the stochastic forcing of these initial structures? How do initial structures and stochastic forcing throughout the evolution of a particular event affect the predictability of a particular type of ENSO event? How important - and how predictable - are changes in mean state conditions versus changes in stochastic forcing in influencing long-term variations in the statistics of different types of ENSO events?

这一合作项目的更广泛影响包括加深对不同类型的厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)事件及其可预测性的了解，以及对两名研究生的培训，该项目将加深我们对中太平洋和东太平洋ENSO事件的动力学和可预测性的理解。研究小组在使用观测约束方法以及使用一套物理模型进行模拟方面拥有丰富的经验。将讨论下列科学问题：初始结构演变为特定类型的ENSO事件的动力过程是什么？有没有物理机制可以解释这些初始结构的随机作用力？在特定事件的整个演化过程中，初始结构和随机强迫如何影响特定类型ENSO事件的可预测性？平均状态条件的变化与随机强迫的变化在影响不同类型ENSO事件的统计数据的长期变化方面有多重要--以及有多大的可预测性？