Collaborative Research: Dynamics and Predictability of East and Central Pacific El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events

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The broader impacts of this collaborative project include furthering understanding of different types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their predictability, and the training of two graduate students, This project will further our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of Central Pacific and East Pacific ENSO events. The research team has extensive experience in using observational constrained approaches as well as in undertaking simulations using a suite of physical models. The following scientific questions will be addressed: What dynamical processes are responsible for the evolution of initial structures into a particular type of ENSO event? Are there physical mechanisms that can explain the stochastic forcing of these initial structures? How do initial structures and stochastic forcing throughout the evolution of a particular event affect the predictability of a particular type of ENSO event? How important - and how predictable - are changes in mean state conditions versus changes in stochastic forcing in influencing long-term variations in the statistics of different types of ENSO events?