EAPSI: Analyzing the Relationship Between Livestock Grazing and Locust Activity in Inner Mongolia, China

蝗虫在世界许多地区是一个毁灭性的问题，对农民和牧场主来说潜在的风险最高。中国说，这项研究旨在量化一场蝗灾对内蒙古牲畜市场的影响。众所周知，高密度的蝗虫会与牲畜争夺食物，但重要的是要了解这如何影响肉类产量和价格。此外，最近的生态学研究表明，当在特定地区放牧的动物数量减少时，蝗虫密度就会下降。利用与内蒙古农业大学合作收集的数据，这项研究将量化该地区农民因蝗虫而遭受的预期经济损失。利用肉类价格和产量的数据，我们计算了内蒙古绵羊、山羊和其他畜产品在农场和零售层面的自有价格和交叉价格需求和供给弹性。这些值被用来建立均衡置换模型，该模型计算由于生产冲击导致的产量变化如何影响农场和零售层面的价格和供应。我们将研究两种情况：一种是代表农民以高强度放牧，另一种是代表农民以中等强度放牧。该模型的结果将被用来检验在这两种情况下农民因蝗虫而遭受的预期经济损失，这将被用来确定减少放牧强度作为一种缓解方法是否符合农民的最大利益。该NSF EAPSI奖是与中国科技部合作资助的。

Locusts are a devastating problem in many regions of the world with the risk potential highest for farmers and ranchers. This research seeks to quantify the impact of a locust infestation on livestock markets in Inner Mongolia, China. Locusts at high densities are known to compete with livestock for food, but it is important to also understand how this impacts meat production and prices. Furthermore, recent ecological study has demonstrated that locust density decreases when the number of animals grazed on a given area is reduced. Using data collected in collaboration with Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, this research will quantify the expected financial loss farmers will experience from locusts in this region. Using data on meat prices and yields, we calculate the own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand and supply for sheep, goats and other livestock produced in Inner Mongolia at the farm and retail level. These values are used to build an equilibrium displacement model, which calculates how changes in yield due to a production shock impact price and supply at the farm and retail level. We will examine two scenarios: one where the representative farmer grazes at a high intensity and one where the representative farmer grazes at a moderate intensity. The results of this model will be used to examine the expected financial loss a farmer will experience due to locusts in both scenarios which will be used to determine whether or not it is in the farmer?s best interests to reduce grazing intensity as a mitigation method. This NSF EAPSI award is funded in collaboration with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.