EAPSI:Assessing and Quantifying Resilience of Commercial Sectors to Natural Hazards

该奖项支持评估和量化商业建筑对地震等自然灾害的韧性的研究。到目前为止，大多数理解社区复原力的尝试都集中在对复原力进行广泛而痛苦的定性评估上。虽然这些方法很有价值，但它们缺乏向利益攸关方和决策者提供具体信息以规划和准备灾难的能力。2011年克赖斯特彻奇地震对克赖斯特彻奇中央商务区(CDB)造成了严重破坏。研究地震对商业建筑的影响以及目前正在做出的恢复决策，将是了解美国未来地震影响的宝贵资源。该项目将提供特定于商业建筑的弹性指标和定量测量随时间变化的弹性所需的工具，提供可用于了解商业建筑的脆弱性、近似损坏和停机时间以及估计恢复决策的预测性工具。这项研究将与新西兰奥克兰大学的肯·埃尔伍德博士合作进行。2011年2月新西兰克赖斯特彻奇地震的影响将作为一个案例研究，以开发可用于评估商业建筑脆弱性的工具，并帮助预测类似容易发生自然灾害的社区的未来后果。这项研究将分三个阶段进行。第一阶段是收集和合并以前在新西兰收集的数据，并收集分析所需的其他数据。在第二阶段，将创建风险分析中使用的故障树和事件树工具，以确定系统故障、关键基线事件和恢复过程中可能的事件序列。最后，故障和事件树将用于通过确定随时间推移的功能来量化社区弹性，并将其提供给开发的弹性度量(S)。最终的产品将是故障树和事件树，供决策者和工程师用来预测未来地震的潜在损害。该奖项是与新西兰皇家学会合作资助的。

This award supports research to assess and quantify the resilience of commercial buildings to natural hazards such as earthquakes. Up to this point, most attempts at understanding community resilience have focused on qualitatively assessing resilience in a broad over aching manner. While these methods are valuable they lack the ability to give stakeholders and decision makers specific information for planning and preparing for a disaster. The 2011 Christchurch earthquake caused severe damage to the Christchurch Central Business District (CDB). Studying the impact of the earthquake on the commercial buildings and the recovery decisions currently being made will be a valuable resource for understanding the impacts of future earthquakes in the United States. This project will provide a resilience metric specific for commercial buildings and the tools required to quantitatively measure resilience over time, providing predictive tools that can be used to understand vulnerabilities of commercial buildings, approximate damages and downtimes, and estimate recovery decisions. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Ken Elwood, at the University of Auckland in Auckland, New Zealand. The impacts of the February 2011 Earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, will serve as a case study to develop tools that can be used to assess vulnerabilities of commercial buildings and help predict future outcomes to communities similarly prone to natural hazards. The research will progress in three phases. The first phase is gathering and combining data previously collected in New Zealand and collecting additional data needed for the analysis. During the second phase fault trees and event trees, tools used in risk analysis, will be created to determine system failures, critical baseline events, and possible event sequences in the recovery process. Finally, the fault and event trees will be used to quantify community resilience by determining functionality over time, feeding into the developed resilience metric(s). The final product will be fault trees and event trees to be used by decision makers and engineers to predict potential damages from future earthquakes. This award is funded in collaboration with the Royal Society of New Zealand.