OCE-PRF Track 1 (Broadening Participation): The influence of predator-prey interactions on climate-induced range shifts in marine communities

过去40年进行的拖网调查提供的证据表明，海洋温度升高导致美国沿海海洋物种分布发生了广泛的变化，一些物种向北移动了200多公里。然而，并非所有物种对海洋温度变化的反应速度都相同。因此，变暖可能改变关键的物种相互作用（如竞争或捕食），这些相互作用可能调节这些种群应对未来气候变化的能力，并影响这些生态系统为人类提供的商品和服务，包括商业和休闲渔业。在这个研究项目中，研究员将研究与海洋温度变化有关的捕食者-猎物相互作用对区域物种变化的影响。此外，该研究员将利用研究结果为罗格斯大学夏季科学项目开发教育材料和互动应用程序。该研究员将为该方案开展的活动有可能直接促进扩大代表性不足的群体对海洋科学的参与。目前大多数预测气候变化变化范围的模型都孤立地考虑每个物种。然而，捕食者-猎物的相互作用有可能改变物种对气候变化的反应能力。事实上，外来物种的入侵已经被发现在种群从天敌(例如？敌人释放？)，并且由于存在抵抗其建立的掠食者而减慢速度(例如？生物电阻?)这项研究将证明入侵生物学的这些关键概念在多大程度上适用于气候引起的范围变化，并且在预测未来的范围变化时需要考虑这些概念。该研究员将利用美国东北大陆架45年的捕食者和猎物分布以及海洋温度数据集。通过研究捕食者丰度和捕食者-猎物空间重叠对猎物种群对气候变化的反应速度的影响，将测试敌人释放和生物抗性的作用。渔业将被视为人类的掠食者。此外，研究员将测试变暖对捕食者和猎物之间重叠的直接影响。利用历史数据中的这些关系，将预测未来气候情景的范围变化，无论是否会因捕捞而导致捕食者数量的变化。改善我们对范围变化的预测对于预测海洋生物多样性、生态系统功能和渔业将如何受到气候变化的影响至关重要。

Trawl surveys conducted over the last 40 years have provided evidence that warming ocean temperatures have driven widespread shifts in the distribution of marine species in the coastal United States, with some species shifting north by more than 200 km. However, not all species have responded at the same rate to these changes in ocean temperatures. As a result, warming could alter key species interactions (such as competition or predation) that could mediate the capacity for these populations to respond to future climate change as well as impact the goods and services provided to humans by these ecosystems, including commercial and recreational fisheries. In this research project, the fellow will examine the influence of predator-prey interactions on regional species shifts related to changes in ocean temperatures. In addition, the fellow will use the results of the research to develop educational materials and an interactive app for the Rutgers Summer Science Program. The activities the fellow will develop for the program have the potential to contribute directly to broadening the participation of under-represented groups in ocean sciences. Most current models predicting range shifts in response to climate change consider each species in isolation. However, predator-prey interactions have the potential to modify the capacity for species to respond to changes in climate. Indeed, invasions by exotic species have been found to be more rapid where populations are released from natural enemies (e.g. ?enemy release?) and are slowed by the presence of predators that resist their establishment (e.g. ?biotic resistance?). This research will demonstrate the degree to which these key concepts from invasion biology apply to climate-induced range shifts and need to be considered when projecting future range shifts. The fellow will utilize a 45-year dataset on predator and prey distributions and ocean temperatures on the U.S. Northeast Shelf. The role of enemy release and biotic resistance will be tested by examining the effect of predator abundance and predator-prey spatial overlap on the rate at which prey populations respond to shifting climates. Fisheries will be considered as human predators. In addition, the fellow will test the direct effect of warming on the overlap between predator and prey. Using these relationships from historical data, range shifts will be projected for future climate scenarios, with and without changes in predator abundance that might result due to fishing. Improving our predictions of range shifts will be critical to forecasting how marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fisheries will be affected by climate change.