Collaborative Research: Geospatial Modeling for Pro-active Flood Mitigation in the Rural Midwest

合作研究：中西部农村地区主动防洪的地理空间建​​模

• 批准号: 1559311
• 负责人: Nicholas Pinter
• 金额: $ 14.78万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-07-31 至 2016-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1559311&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Geospatial; Modeling; Pro

Repetitive flooding severely affects rural communities in the Midwest and nationwide. "The crucial point about understanding why disasters happen is that it is not only natural events that cause them. They are also the product of social, political, and economic environments" (Wisner et al., 2004). This project will evaluate relationships between: 1) flood risk; 2) local attitudes towards mitigation; 3) responses of local leadership; and 4) institutional regulations and policies in order to create an integrated physical-social GIS model of vulnerability to catastrophic flooding and use it to select 30 rural communities suitable for large-scale flood risk mitigation such as through community relocation. We will survey residents in the 30 communities and use these data to answer questions about rural communities' attitudes towards living with catastrophic flood risk and mechanisms for promoting community-driven reductions in flood risk. We will also map institutional, regulatory, and legal policies that local leaders must navigate to implement proactive mitigation. We will conduct a controlled experiment in 10 communities, assigned in equal number to experimental intervention or to a control group. Intervention in the five communities will consist of engaging leaders and residents in multifaceted discussion of the obstacles, opportunities, and incentives for reducing exposure to catastrophic flood damage. Ethnographic analysis of the interventions will allow us to qualitatively test how local leaders negotiate potential conflicts between community attitudes, flood risk, and governmental structures and programs. These results will be used to further refine the GIS model and shape it as a tool for flood mitigation and mitigation research. The goal of this project is to analyze the physical, hydrological, economic, social and institutional landscape of rural floodplains of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Illinois Rivers to identify - and begin implementing - strategies for increasing rural community resilience. The practical goals of this project are to assess the vulnerability of rural floodplain communities, their capacity to recover from catastrophic flooding, and local attitudes that present both opportunities and challenges to meaningful mitigation of flood hazard. Many U.S. floodplain residents live in a virtual state-of-denial regarding the long-term risk of flooding, and many vociferously resist buyouts and other mitigation measures that could meaningfully reduce future flood damages. We assert that many obstacles to effective risk reduction could be dramatically reduced by (1) proactive planning ahead of major disasters, and (2) community-scale mitigation projects, rather than piecemeal removal of structures and slow erosion of affected communities. This project seeks to create a socio-hydrological framework and practical foundation to reenergize flood mitigation efforts on rural U.S. floodplains. The project will promote public awareness of flood risk and foster coordinated mitigation efforts in some of the nation's most at-risk communities along the Mississippi, Illinois, and Ohio Rivers and guide hazard and mitigation research and applications throughout the U.S.

反复的洪水严重影响了中西部和全国的农村社区。“理解灾难发生的关键一点是，不仅仅是自然事件导致了灾难。他们也是社会、政治和经济环境的产物”（Wisner et al., 2004）。本项目将评估以下因素之间的关系：1)洪水风险；2)当地对缓解的态度；3)地方领导的反应；4)制度性法规和政策，以创建灾害洪水脆弱性的综合物理-社会GIS模型，并利用该模型选择30个适合通过社区搬迁等方式大规模减轻洪水风险的农村社区。我们将对30个社区的居民进行调查，并利用这些数据回答有关农村社区对生活在灾难性洪水风险中的态度以及促进社区驱动的降低洪水风险的机制的问题。我们还将绘制地方领导人必须驾驭的机构、监管和法律政策，以实施积极的缓解措施。我们将在10个社区进行对照实验，将实验干预组和对照组的人数相等。对五个社区的干预将包括让领导人和居民参与多方面的讨论，讨论减少遭受灾难性洪水破坏的障碍、机会和激励措施。对干预措施的人种学分析将使我们能够定性地测试当地领导人如何在社区态度、洪水风险和政府结构和项目之间协商潜在冲突。这些结果将用于进一步完善地理信息系统模型，并将其塑造为洪水缓解和缓解研究的工具。该项目的目标是分析密西西比河、俄亥俄河和伊利诺斯河流域农村洪泛平原的自然、水文、经济、社会和制度景观，以确定并开始实施提高农村社区抗灾能力的战略。这个项目的实际目标是评估农村洪泛区社区的脆弱性、它们从灾难性洪水中恢复的能力，以及为切实减轻洪水危害带来机遇和挑战的当地态度。许多美国洪泛区居民对洪水的长期风险几乎处于否认状态，许多人强烈反对收购和其他可能有意义地减少未来洪水损失的缓解措施。我们认为，通过(1)在重大灾害发生之前进行积极规划，以及(2)社区规模的减灾项目，而不是零碎地拆除建筑物和缓慢侵蚀受影响社区，可以大大减少有效降低风险的许多障碍。该项目旨在创建一个社会水文框架和实践基础，以重新激活美国农村洪泛区的洪水缓解工作。该项目将提高公众对洪水风险的认识，并在密西西比河、伊利诺伊河和俄亥俄河沿岸的一些最危险的社区促进协调减灾工作，并指导美国各地的灾害和减灾研究和应用