Combining meteorological and oceanic observations for an improved SODA: reconstrucing climate variability during the past century

结合气象和海洋观测改进 SODA：重建上个世纪的气候变化

• 批准号: 1635470
• 负责人: James Carton
• 金额: $ 77.59万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1635470&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Combining; meteorological; oceanic; observations; improved

The ocean's ability to store and transport heat and freshwater gives it a crucial role in climate variability. The idea that the ocean can sequester excess heat and thus disrupt continental warming trends or shift rainfall patterns is the subject of a rapidly growing research literature. Much of the observational basis for many studies of the hiatus is limited to the years since 2001 when the instrumental coverage of the oceans expanded due to Argo. An effort by meteorologists is refining and extending the surface meteorological record back to the nineteenth century. This proposal is a complementary effort to explore the limits of using data assimilation to combine historical observations, surface meteorology, and ocean dynamics to reconstruct the corresponding record of ocean heat and water storage. By elucidating the historical ocean climate record and the limits to what we can learn about past variability due to the historical data sampling this research provides a key piece of information for efforts to anticipate and predict future climate variability and change. The ocean reanalysis data sets produced will be made freely available to other researchers and the general community, which will foster further research benefits. This work will also form the basis of a dissertation for a University of Maryland graduate student.The ocean and sea ice systems are increasingly being recognized as playing a key role in climate variability and change and so making best use of the limited historical record must be a high priority. The recent hiatus in ocean warming seems to have been confined only to the past decade, but the oceans experienced a much more extended two decade hiatus beginning in 1970 and likely another in the 1940s and 1950s. It has been suggested that the reduced heating in the 1970s was the result of the effects of increasing aerosol loading on net surface heating. If so that should lead to significant differences in heat distribution from the recent hiatus (for which Pacific climate variability is likely important). The relatively cool North Atlantic of the 1940s ended a period of unprecedented warming of the Arctic. Is there evidence to suggest corresponding reductions of northward heat transport into the Arctic? Our understanding of the historical record of salinity is even less certain than temperature, but can the documented trends in upper ocean salinity be shown to alter the ventilation of water masses? The proposal will build on the PI's long term development of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis as a tool to explore the ocean's role in climate variability. A key emphasis will be on using observing system simulation experiments and data withholding experiments to explore the accuracy of those reconstructions to better understand the limits of application of such a reconstruction. With the combined use of hydrographic and tide gauge sea level data together in a hybrid ensemble data assimilation system, this proposal is to reanalyze ocean and sea ice variability (including sea level) from 1900 through 2015, and to use observing system experiments to quantify uncertainties. Justification for the work lies in the need to address the US CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) program's objectives of "describing and understanding the ocean's role in climate variability on seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales" and the recommendations of the U.S. Global Change Research Plan 2012-2021.

海洋储存和运输热量和淡水的能力使其在气候变化中起着至关重要的作用。海洋可以吸收多余的热量，从而扰乱大陆变暖趋势或改变降雨模式，这一观点是越来越多的研究文献的主题。许多关于海洋中断的研究的大部分观测基础都局限于2001年以来的年份，当时海洋的仪器覆盖范围因阿尔戈而扩大。气象学家正在努力完善和扩展地表气象记录，可以追溯到19世纪。本研究旨在探索利用数据同化结合历史观测、地面气象和海洋动力学重建相应的海洋热储记录的局限性。通过阐明历史海洋气候记录以及由于历史数据采样我们可以了解到的过去变率的局限性，本研究为预测和预测未来气候变率和变化的努力提供了关键信息。产生的海洋再分析数据集将免费提供给其他研究人员和一般社区，这将促进进一步的研究效益。这项工作也将构成马里兰大学研究生论文的基础。人们日益认识到，海洋和海冰系统在气候变率和变化中起着关键作用，因此，充分利用有限的历史记录必须成为一项高度优先事项。最近海洋变暖的中断似乎只局限于过去十年，但海洋经历了一个更长的20年中断，从1970年开始，可能在20世纪40年代和50年代。有人认为，20世纪70年代的升温减少是气溶胶负荷增加对地表净升温影响的结果。如果是这样的话，这应该会导致最近的间歇期热量分布的显著差异（太平洋气候的变化可能很重要）。20世纪40年代相对凉爽的北大西洋结束了北极前所未有的变暖时期。是否有证据表明向北进入北极的热输送相应减少？我们对盐度的历史记录的了解甚至比温度更不确定，但是记录在案的上层海洋盐度的趋势能改变水团的通风吗？该提案将建立在PI长期发展的简单海洋数据同化（SODA）再分析的基础上，作为探索海洋在气候变化中的作用的工具。重点将放在使用观测系统模拟实验和数据保留实验来探索这些重建的准确性，以更好地了解这种重建的应用局限性。在混合集合数据同化系统中，结合水文测量和潮汐测量海平面数据，重新分析1900年至2015年的海洋和海冰变化（包括海平面），并使用观测系统实验来量化不确定性。这项工作的理由在于需要解决美国CLIVAR（气候变率和可预测性）计划的目标，即“描述和理解海洋在季节、年际和年代际时间尺度上对气候变率的作用”，以及美国2012-2021年全球变化研究计划的建议。

项目成果

Delayed and Quasi‐Synchronous Response of Tropical Atlantic Surface Salinity to Rainfall

热带大西洋表面盐度对降雨的延迟和准同步响应

• DOI: 10.1029/2018jc013915
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Grodsky, Semyon A.;Carton, James A.
• 通讯作者: Carton, James A.

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

• DOI: 10.1002/2017jc013137
• 发表时间: 2018-05-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
• 影响因子: 3.6
• 作者: Carton, James A.;Chepurin, Gennady A.;Grodsky, Semyon A.
• 通讯作者: Grodsky, Semyon A.

Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

CMIP5 耦合模型中北冰洋的季节性热量和淡水循环

• DOI: 10.1002/2015jc011124
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
• 作者: Ding, Yanni;Carton, James A.;Chepurin, Gennady A.;Steele, Michael;Hakkinen, Sirpa
• 通讯作者: Hakkinen, Sirpa

An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z
• 发表时间: 2019-02
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: P. Uotila;H. Goosse;K. Haines;M. Chevallier;A. Barthélemy;C. Bricaud;J. Carton;N. Fučkar;G. Garric;D. Iovino;F. Kauker;M. Korhonen;V. Lien;M. Marnela;F. Massonnet;D. Mignac;K. Andrew Peterson;Remon Sadikni;Li Shi;S. Tietsche;T. Toyoda;Jiping Xie;Zhaoru Zhang

Report from the NOAA Climate Reanalysis Task Force Technical Workshop

NOAA 气候再分析工作组技术研讨会的报告

• DOI: 10.7289/v53j39zz
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Climate Reanalysis Task Force Technical Workshop
• 作者: Compo, G.;Carton, J.A.;Dong, X.;Kumar, A.;Saha, S.;Woollen, J. S.;Yu, L.;Archambault, H. M.
• 通讯作者: Archambault, H. M.