RAPID: Evaluating the Top-Two Primary System

采用前两名的初选制度是否会改变选民的政治知识、政治兴趣和投票选择？2016年加州前两名的初选为了解加州选民在初选和大选中的表现是否因其不同寻常的初选制度而有所不同提供了一个机会。法律与公正党利用小组调查来评估选民是否更了解政治，是否从不同的来源获取信息，是否对初选和普通投票进行战略性思考，以及总体上是否可能因选举改革而改变投票方式。小组调查在两个时间点（6月初选之后和11月大选之后）将一组加州选民与一组全国选民进行比对。这一策略使法律与公正党能够检查加州选民的行为与全国选民的行为有多大不同，但也将让我们知道他们的行为在初选和大选之间发生了多大的变化。我们特别感兴趣的是，预选法律是否会使选民更加了解对方候选人。有限的证据表明，前两项初选改革改变了选民的选择和选举结果。这个项目将加州登记选民的大规模调查与具有全国代表性的登记选民样本进行比较。以前的调查从竞争激烈的前两名国会或加州立法机构竞选中捕捉到选民行为的快照，但到目前为止，还不可能评估选民的行为，因为全州所有选民都参加了一场可能导致两党大选的竞选。具体而言，本项目评估了前两个初选对选民行为和态度的影响，这些行为和态度与政治知识和投票选择的适度有关。本项目探讨选举制度、政治知识和投票选择之间的理论关系。

General SummaryDoes the use of a top-two primary electoral system alter voters' political knowledge, interest in politics and vote choices. The 2016 top-two primary in California provides an opportunity to understand whether voters in California are behaving differently in the primary election or the general election because of their unusual primary election system. The PIs use a panel survey evaluate whether voters are more informed about politics, are getting their information from different sources, are thinking strategically about their primary and general ballots, and in general are likely to vote differently because of the electoral reform. The panel survey matches a set of California voters to a set of national voters at two points in time (immediately after the June primary and then again after the November general election). This strategy allows the PIs to examine to what extent California voters are behaving differently than voters across the nation but will also let us know to what extent their behavior changes between the primary and general election. We are particularly interested in whether the primary election laws cause voters to become more informed about opposite party candidates.Technical Summary There is limited evidence that the top-two primary electoral reform has altered voters' choices and electoral outcomes. This project compares a large scale survey California registered voters to a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Previous surveys have captured snapshots of voter behavior from contested top-two congressional or California legislative races, but until now it has not been possible to evaluate voter behavior where all statewide voters are participating in a contest where a likely outcome is a co-partisan general election contest. Specifically, this project evaluates the effect of the top-two primary on voter behavior and attitudes as related to political knowledge and moderation of vote choice. This project addresses the theoretical relationship between electoral system, political knowledge and vote choice.