PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances

极端的太阳风暴在一定程度上通过破坏电力传输系统的地磁感应电流(GIC)威胁着社会。太空极端天气事件将摧毁美国，造成超过2T美元的损失，并导致数亿人一个多月断电。国家空间天气行动计划呼吁立即增加研究和改进我们的预测能力，以应对这一威胁。这项拟议的工作将利用NSF资助的数据源(Ampere、SuPERMAG和EarthScope)来改进现有的空间天气建模框架中的模型，并生成一个新的GIC预测工具，该工具可以很容易地过渡到NOAA的空间天气预测中心的业务。地磁极端扰动复原力的综合风险分析(CHEED)应用不同学科的专家来创建一个完全耦合的、基于物理的GIC模型，其中包括磁层、电离层和固体地球，并针对全球分布的最先进的观测进行验证。空间天气模型框架(SWMF)将通过真实的粒子降水和电离层电导物理得到改进。全球三维时域有限差分(FDTD)模型将被用来通过地面传播电离层信号，同时考虑海洋和可变的岩石层电导率。将使用现有的最佳现场和远程数据对该模型进行验证，以确定其预测准确性。太阳能驾驶和GIC之间的关系将在历史和理想化的极端事件中进行探索。该项目将从根本上对导致极端GIC事件的过程产生新的理解(征集目标1)，并扩大我们模拟和预测GIC危险的能力(目标2)。由此产生的耦合系统可以形成目前在NOAA运行的SWMF版本的自然延伸。

Extreme solar storms threaten society, in part, via Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage power transmission systems. A space weather extreme event would devastate the US, costing more than $2T and leaving hundreds of millions without electricity for more than a month. The National Space Weather Action Plan calls for an immediate increase in research and improvements to our predictive capabilities to address this threat. This proposed work will make use of NSF funded data sources (AMPERE, SUPERMAG, and EarthScope) to improve existing models with in the Space Weather Modeling Framework and to generate a new tool for GIC prediction that could easily be transitioned to operations at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.Comprehensive Hazard Analysis for Resilience to Geomagnetic Extreme Disturbances (CHARGED) applies experts in various disciplines to create a fully coupled, physics-based model of GICs that includes the magnetosphere, ionosphere, and solid Earth together with validation against state-of-the art globally distributed observations. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) will be improved with realistic particle precipitation and ionospheric conductance physics. A global 3D finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) model will be used to propagate the ionosphere signal through the ground while accounting for the oceans and variable lithosphere conductivity. This model will be validated using the best available in-situ and remote data to determine its predictive accuracy. The relationship between solar driving and GICs will be explored for both historical and idealized extreme events. The project will yield fundamental new understanding of the processes leading to extreme GIC events (solicitation target 1), and expand our capability to model and forecast GIC hazards (target 2). The resulting coupled system could form a natural extension to the operational SWMF version currently at NOAA.