Collaborative Research: Ecosystem Response to a Warming Arctic: Deciphering the Past to Inform The Future.

北极目前变暖的速度是全球平均速度的两倍，预计这将导致植物分布范围向北移动。木本植被的增加将减少光和热的表面反射，并增加大气中的水蒸气，这是一种目前很少纳入气候模型的正反馈。在加拿大北极东部，湖泊中的分层沉积物跨越了当前的间冰期和较温暖的前间冰期，保存了沉积的古DNA和有机分子，可用于重建过去的生态系统及其对温度和水文气候的依赖。通过将这些沉积物的数据与现代植被研究和气候监测相结合，将开发一个基于经验的生态系统-气候模型，以预测在一系列气候轨迹情景下到2100年北极生态系统的可能演变。这将是第一次整合sedaDNA为基础的植被记录与生物标记为基础的气候记录在湖泊沉积物含有记录一个更温暖的北极。对非洲经委会结晶地形上的薄土生态系统研究很少。植物区系研究和植被环境分析目标湖泊周围的强烈的气候梯度建立当前的植物组合和夏季温度之间的关系，并定义sedaDNA和附近的植物群落之间的关系。土壤、空气和湖水的温度记录仪，以及现代土壤和湖泊表面沉积物中的DNA和生物标志物分析，将加强对有前途的新分子代理的理解，并促进区域培训集的开发。该项目汇集了北极植物生态学，古气候，sedaDNA和有机地球化学方面的专家和最先进的设施，以获得对高纬度气候和地理学之间复杂相互作用的变革性新见解，并将导致对生态系统的潜在反应的强大观点整个非洲经委会预计未来变暖。该项目小组致力于通过在加拿大北极地区以及国内的当地社区之间的外联活动，与更广泛的公众分享研究成果。该小组将在实地考察期间与因纽特人导游和助手密切合作，其中大部分在传统的狩猎和捕鱼地附近，并将通过在加拿大公园办公室的展示与附近的因纽特人社区分享成果。几十年来，与努纳武特研究所及其附属的北极学院建立了牢固的伙伴关系，这种伙伴关系将通过与北极学院的环境技术方案学生和工作人员合作建立互动式湖泊监测方案来扩大。在科罗拉多的博尔德，将根据气候变化的古生态学和古气候学观点，为代表性不足的高中生开发一个奖学金支持的夏季实地和实验室课程。该项目将帮助启动两名早期职业科学家，一名女性和一名拉丁美洲人，以及一名职业科学家和两名博士后，其中两名是女性，以及两名新的研究生。实验室部分将支持几个研究生和本科生助理，他们将获得宝贵的研究经验，并有机会根据他们的研究活动完成论文。

The Arctic is currently warming twice as fast as the global average and this is expected to result in a northward shift in plant ranges. An increase in woody vegetation would reduce surface reflection of light and heat (albedo), and increase atmospheric water vapor, a positive feedback that is currently poorly included in climate models. In the Eastern Canadian Arctic (ECA) stratified sediment in lakes spanning the current interglacial and the warmer previous interglacial, preserve sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and organic molecules that can be used for reconstruction of past ecosystems and their dependence on temperature and hydroclimate. By combining data from these sediments with modern vegetation studies and climate monitoring, an empirically based ecosystem-climate model will be developed to predict the likely evolution of Arctic ecosystems by 2100 under a range of climate trajectory scenarios. This will be the first integration of sedaDNA-based vegetation records with biomarker-based climate records in lake sediment containing records of a much warmer Arctic. There are few ecosystem studies for the thin soils on crystalline terrain of the ECA. Floristic studies and vegetation-environment analyses around targeted lakes across a strong climate gradient establish the current relation between plant assemblages and summer temperature and define the relation between sedaDNA and nearby plant communities. Temperature loggers in soils, air, and lake- water, and analyzes of DNA and biomarkers in modern soils and lake surface sediment will enhance understanding of promising new molecular proxies and facilitate the development of regional training sets. The project brings together experts and state-of- the-art facilities in Arctic plant ecology, Paleoclimate, sedaDNA, and Organic Geochemistry to derive transformative new insight into the complex interplay between climate and biogeography at high latitudes, and will lead to a robust perspective on the potential response of ecosystems to anticipated future warming across the ECA. The project team is committed to sharing research results with the broader public through outreach among local communities in the Canadian Arctic as well as at home. The team will work closely with Inuit guides and assistants during fieldwork, much of which is near traditional hunting and fishing lands, and will share results with nearby Inuit communities through displays at Parks Canada offices. A strong partnership with Nunavut Research Institute and its affiliated Arctic College has been developed over several decades, and this partnership will be expanded by establishing an interactive lake-monitoring program in collaboration with the Environment Technology Program students and staff of Arctic College. In Boulder, Colorado, a scholarship-supported summer field and lab course for underrepresented high school students will be developed based on paleoecological and paleoclimatic perspectives on climate change. This project will help launch two early-career scientists, one female and one Latino, as well as a career scientist and two postdocs, two of whom are female, and two new graduate students. The laboratory component will support several graduate and undergraduate assistants, who will gain valuable research experience and have the opportunity to complete theses based on their research activities.