CAREER: Geographic and Temporal Homicide Dynamics 1870-2003

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This project will examine historical changes in the location and prevalence of homicide in three U.S. cities from 1870 to the present. By digitizing and geocoding homicide data from over a century, this project will create new measures to describe the geographic and temporal dynamics of homicide such as change in homicide hotspots: size, lifespan, and rate of occurrence. This quantitative historical analysis enables exploration of whether homicide dynamics today are the continuation of a historical pattern or the product of recent changes in U.S. society. More broadly, this project will advance the fields of sociology, law, and criminology by testing whether existing theories can help identify events triggering or diminishing change in homicide's location, timing, and prevalence. Data will come from historical archives in Chicago, New Orleans, and San Francisco, and the project will unfold in two stages. First, a research team and laboratory will be assembled to digitize and geocode archival materials. Second, the research team will use the digitized data to examine research questions including but not limited to: A) did major scientific advances in homicide investigation techniques decrease homicide's prevalence? B) do events that erode community trust in police trigger homicide waves? C) do events that trigger sentiments of collective efficacy diminish homicide hotspots lifespan or rate-of-occurrence? Quasi-experimental research methods such as comparative interrupted time series and regression discontinuity models will be used to assess these questions. With respect to broader impacts, this project will help cities improve network and place-based homicide prevention efforts by identifying the ideal timing and duration for law enforcement and social service interventions. Similarly, the identification of events that trigger homicide waves may help cities learn how to anticipate sudden increases in violence. Finally, the project will make use of a novel method for disseminating project findings to the greater public. Through collaborations with a data visualization scientist as well as local libraries in Chicago, New Orleans, and San Francisco, project findings will be shared with the public through displays of large maps visualizing change in historical homicide patterns. Project maps and data visualizations will be displayed in libraries and galleries in each city to spark greater public interest and awareness about homicide and the science of prevention.