Collaborative Research: Understanding Evacuation Behavior for Rapid Onset Disasters such as Flash Floods and Tsunami in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

合作研究：了解卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带山洪和海啸等快速发生的灾害的疏散行为

• 批准号: 1826455
• 负责人: Michael Lindell
• 金额: $ 12.03万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-15 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1826455&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Understanding; Evacuation; Behavior

This project advances the fundamental understanding of household responses to rapid onset disasters such as flash floods and near-field tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Specifically, this project will address two often-neglected fundamental issues in evacuation research. First, although there has been extensive research on evacuation rates and the factors that affect household evacuation decisions, there has been little research on evacuation logistics. In particular, recent research on evacuations from rapid onset disasters has revealed that few studies have addressed the timing of warning diffusion and household mobilization, let alone the predictors of these variables. This poses a significant impediment to transportation researchers who require accurate estimates of the time dependent rates at which evacuees enter the evacuation route system because time is critical to the likelihood of surviving tsunami waves or inland flooding. Second, there has been little research on evacuees' transportation mode choices (vehicular vs. pedestrian) from mountainous coasts where both modes are feasible. Transportation mode choice is closely related to households' choice of evacuation routes and destinations. These issues are addressed by conducting a behavioral expectations survey of a representative sample of residents in three communities on the Oregon coast. The behavioral expectations survey is supplemented by surveys of people who participate in tsunami evacuation drills. Data from these sources are integrated into an agent-based evacuation model. This project will develop a tsunami interactive multi-touch exhibit to transform hazard literacy education at the Hatfield Marine Science Center Cyber-Learning Laboratory. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits by identifying critical needs for household and community evacuation planning in advance of rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods.This project integrates the multiple disciplines of social science, hazard science, and engineering through an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework to investigate household's response to rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. The research objective is to systematically compare experiential evacuation drills to prior research on people's responses to the earthquakes and tsunami threat in Christchurch, Tohoku, and American Samoa, complemented by data from a tsunami evacuation expectations survey on the Oregon coast. These data will underpin a validated interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework that advances the theoretical understanding and practical utilization of scientific findings regarding household response to imminent threats. Specifically, this project will achieve the following four objectives: (1) conduct systematic comparisons of experiential drills to actual events to uncover ways they differ; (2) identify and validate the critical decision-making factors that facilitate or inhibit the implementation of protective actions; (3) characterize the behavioral outcomes of tsunami vertical evacuation and unplanned infrastructure disruptions; and (4) establish an experiential cyberlearning platform to enhance tsunami literacy education. The results from this project will provide disaster planners and managers with a strong evidence-based framework to create effective evacuation strategies and evacuation route system mitigation plans. This project will also improve understanding by STEM students, policy makers and planners, agency/industry professionals, and the general public, of tsunamis and measures that can be taken to improve life safety and community resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目促进了对卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的临时发作灾害（例如山洪暴发和近场海啸）的基本理解。具体而言，该项目将解决疏散研究中两个经常被认可的基本问题。首先，尽管对疏散率和影响家庭疏散决定的因素进行了广泛的研究，但对疏散物流的研究很少。特别是，最近对快速发作灾害撤离的研究表明，很少有研究解决了警告扩散和家庭动员的时机，更不用说这些变量的预测指标了。这对运输研究人员构成了重大障碍，他们需要准确估计撤离人员进入疏散路线系统的时间依赖性率，因为时间对于幸存海啸波或内陆洪水的可能性至关重要。其次，从山区海岸的撤离人员的运输模式选择（车辆与行人）几乎没有研究，这两种模式都是可行的。运输模式选择与家庭选择疏散路线和目的地密切相关。这些问题是通过对俄勒冈海岸三个社区的代表性居民进行的行为期望调查来解决的。行为期望调查补充了参加海啸撤离演习的人的调查。这些来源的数据集成到基于代理的疏散模型中。该项目将开发海啸互动多点触摸展览，以改变哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心网络学习实验室的危害识字教育。因此，这项科学研究的贡献支持NSF促进科学进步的使命，并通过确定对家庭和社区疏散计划的关键需求来促进我们的民族福利，并在快速发作灾害之前确定诸如海啸和山内洪水之类的快速灾难的需求。洪水。 研究目标是将经验疏散训练与人们对基督城，东北，东北和美国萨摩亚人地震和海啸威胁的反应进行的研究进行比较，并伴随着俄勒冈州海岸的海啸撤离期望调查的数据。 这些数据将支持经过验证的基于跨学科的建模框架，该框架促进了有关家庭对迫在眉睫威胁的科学发现的理论理解和实际利用。具体而言，该项目将实现以下四个目标：（1）对实际事件进行体验训练的系统比较，以发现它们不同的方式； （2）确定并验证促进或抑制保护行为的关键决策因素； （3）表征海啸垂直疏散和计划外基础设施中断的行为结果； （4）建立一个体验性网络学习平台，以增强海啸扫盲教育。 该项目的结果将为灾难计划者和经理提供强大的基于证据的框架，以创建有效的疏散策略和疏散路线系统缓解计划。该项目还将提高STEM学生，政策制定者和计划者，代理/行业专业人士以及公众对海啸的理解以及可以采取的措施，以提高生命安全和社区的弹性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的智力和更广泛的影响来通过评估来获得支持的人，并被认为是值得的。