Collaborative Research: RAPID: re-wiring of montane pollination networks under severe drought stress

预计2018年落基山脉西部将发生严重干旱，此前的冬季积雪量是有记录以来第二低的。干旱将极大地改变落基山脉生态系统中的物种及其相对丰度。因此，干旱提供了一个不寻常的机会来研究授粉网络（相互作用的传粉者和植物物种之间的联系）如何受到干扰的影响。这一点很重要，因为预计极端环境事件将变得越来越普遍，授粉对于维持野生植物种群和许多农作物的生产力和安全至关重要。具体而言，该项目的重点是1）生态系统中的物种如何在干扰后与其他物种形成新的联系; 2）即使在重大干扰之后，如何预测新的联系; 3）植物-传粉者关系的新模式对理解生态系统对干扰的反应的影响。这项工作将有助于更好地了解网络如何（包括其他生态网络，以及其他网络类型，如经济网络、工程网络和社交网络）对干扰作出反应，特别是在形成新的连接方面。（2016年和2017年）建立和测试网络结构的机制模型，基于植物和传粉者的丰度，传粉者之间对花朵的竞争，以及植物和传粉者物理性状（如身体大小）的数据。模型预测将与严重干旱年份（2018年）的实地数据进行比较，预计存在的物种将大幅减少（例如，许多长寿的植物物种在干旱胁迫下可能不会开花）以及花朵和传粉者相对丰度的实质性变化。特别是，该项目还将评估这种新网络模型相对于现有替代模型的表现（目前没有一种模型在预测相互作用方面表现良好）。研究人员将使用模型来评估重新布线的实质性能力将如何影响系统对扰动的响应。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

A severe drought is expected in the western Rockies in 2018, following the second-lowest snowpack on record the preceding winter. The drought will dramatically alter which species are present in the ecosystems of the Rockies and their relative abundances. The drought thus presents an unusual opportunity to study how pollination networks (the connections between interacting pollinator and plant species) are affected by disturbances. This is important given that extreme environmental events are expected to become increasingly common and that pollination is critically important for the maintenance of both wild plant populations and the productivity and security of many agricultural crops. Specifically, this project is focused on 1) how species in ecosystems can form new connections to other species after disturbances; 2) how new connections can be predicted even following major disturbance; and 3) the implications of new patterns of plant-pollinator relationships for understanding ecosystem-level responses to disturbance. This work will contribute to better understanding of how networks (including other ecological networks, and other network types such as economic, engineered, and social networks) respond to disturbances, particularly in terms of the formation of new connections.This project will use existing plant-pollinator network field data from non-drought years (2016 and 2017) to build and test mechanism-focused models of network structure, based on plant and pollinator abundances, competition between pollinators for flowers, and data on plant and pollinator physical traits (such as body size). Model predictions will be compared with field data from the severe drought year (2018) in which it is anticipated that there will be a strong reduction in which species are present (for example, many long-lived plant species may not bloom when drought-stressed) as well as substantial changes in relative abundances of flowers and pollinators. In particular, the project will also assess how well this new network model performs relative to existing alternative models (none of which currently perform well in predicting interactions). The researchers will then use models to assess generally how substantial capacity for re-wiring will affect system-level responses to perturbations.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.