Extreme Weather Disasters, Economic Losses via Migration, and Widening Spatial Inequality in the U.S.

2017年，美国因160亿美元的极端天气灾害造成的经济损失创下3130亿美元的新纪录。极端天气灾害造成的经济损失在空间上集中在佛罗里达州等州，而且随着时间的推移非常稳定。虽然人们留在灾害多发地区的原因很多，但也有一些人选择移民或被迫离开，一些人是暂时的，另一些人是永久的。作为经济行为者，移民带来了无数的经济活动，这些活动构成了以前的研究中没有研究过的经济损失。该项目将是第一个记录极端天气事件后从美国受影响地区移民造成的经济损失规模的项目。由于移民必然会将不同的地方联系在一起，该项目还将记录移民造成的经济损失是否以及在多大程度上有助于改变美国整体的空间不平等。项目成果将为有关如何减轻美国极端天气灾害的经济成本，从而促进灾后恢复和经济繁荣的政策提供投入。该项目使用美国国税局(IRS)和纽约联邦储备银行消费者信贷小组(CCP)收入统计项目的县级数据来记录和分析过去20年美国极端天气灾害后从受影响地区移民造成的经济损失。国税局和共同国家方案的数据分别使用调整后总收入和债务融资消费活动的信息来衡量移徙造成的经济损失总额。在总结了极端天气灾害后从受影响地区移徙造成的经济损失的规模之后，该项目将使用人口分解程序来区分经济组成部分(平均或人均因移徙造成的经济损失)和人口组成部分(移徙倾向以及受影响地区的人口规模)的相对贡献。该项目进一步认识到移民的内在空间特征，还使用两种不同的基尼指数来记录极端天气灾害后受影响地区的移民造成的经济损失是否有助于改变美国的空间不平等，以及在多大程度上有助于改变美国的空间不平等。基尼指数的两个变体衡量了移民网络中流动的空间集中程度。鉴于极端天气灾害和移民之间关系的异质性，该项目采取了具体案例和比较的方法，根据美国空间灾害事件和损失数据库(SHELDUS)，重点关注在过去20年中经历了大部分经济损失的县的三种极端天气灾害，包括热带气旋、龙卷风和野火。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In 2017, the U.S. set a new record of $313 billion in economic losses from sixteen billion-dollar extreme weather disasters. Economic losses from extreme weather disasters are spatially concentrated in states like Florida and are remarkably stable over time. While there are many reasons that people stay in disaster-prone areas, others choose to migrate or are forced to leave, some temporarily and others permanently. As economic actors, migrants take with them myriad economic activities that constitute economic losses that have not been studied in previous research. This project will be the first to document the size of economic losses via migration from affected areas in the U.S. after extreme weather events. Because migration necessarily connects places to one another, the project will also document whether and to what extent such economic losses via migration contribute to changing spatial inequality in the U.S. as a whole. Project results will provide input into policies concerning how to mitigate the economic costs of extreme weather disasters in the U.S., thus contributing to disaster recovery and economic prosperity. This project uses county-level data from the Statistics of Income program at the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) to document and analyze economic losses via migration from affected areas after extreme weather disasters in the U.S. over the past two decades. Total economic losses via migration are measured in the IRS and CCP data using information on aggregate adjusted gross income and debt-financed consumption activities, respectively. After summarizing the size of economic losses via migration from affected areas after extreme weather disasters, the project will use demographic decomposition procedures to distinguish the relative contributions of economic components (average, or per capita, economic losses via migration) and demographic components (the propensity to migrate, as well as population size in the affected area). Further acknowledging the inherently spatial character of migration, this project also documents whether and to what extent economic losses via migration from affected areas after extreme weather disasters contribute to changing spatial inequality in the U.S. using two variants of the Gini Index that measure spatial focusing among flows in migration networks. Given heterogeneity in the relationship between extreme weather disasters and migration, this project takes a case-specific and comparative approach, focusing on three types of extreme weather disasters, including tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and wildfires, in counties that have experienced the bulk of economic losses over the last twenty years according to the Spatial Hazards Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.