Toward a Theory of Systems Engineering

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The research objective of this award is to provide a framework for and begin the derivation of a mathematically rigorous theory of systems engineering. Systems engineering has often been taught and practiced based on a set of heuristics that work sometimes, but not always. The lack of a rigorous theory has contributed to many projects encountering delays, significant cost overruns, and under-performance. It has been estimated that the resulting losses to the Federal government, particularly via military and other major Federal procurements, likely exceed $200 million per day. These losses are accompanied by equivalent losses in the private sector. A theory of systems engineering will serve as a test of the validity of systems engineering practices and posit a theory for sound systems design and decision making, which hold considerable promise of substantially reducing these losses. In addition, a rigorous theory will provide a basis for sound systems engineering education and hold the potential to revolutionize engineering education across the entire engineering curriculum. For example, it will form the basis for teaching engineering design decision making under uncertainty.It is noted that a comprehensive theory of systems engineering can be derived from the simple preference statement, "I want the best system I can get," where the definition of "best" is left entirely to the discretion of the project manager. The insight upon which this effort is based observes that design and systems engineering are decision-making processes, which rely on preferences that enable optimal system decision making rather than physical principals that impose constraints on design decisions. The approach in this project is a significant deviation from previous efforts to the derivation of a theory of design and systems engineering, and its implementation will demand the rigorous application and integration of decision theory, preference theory, probability theory, game theory and mechanism design. The merger of these branches of mathematics with engineering will represent a transformative advance, providing a litmus test for the validity of theories of and approaches to systems engineering. A goal of this work will be the establishment of a set of rules that will define valid methods, procedures and processes for the conduct of engineering design and systems engineering.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.