Earthquake Resilience of the Western Power Grid

一场大地震，如卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（CSZ）地震，有可能引发毁灭性的海啸，可能摧毁美国西海岸社区的基础设施和电力系统。目前对地震灾害下电网性能的研究还很缺乏。在卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（Cascadia Subduction Zone， CSZ）地震的大范围破坏和随之而来的灾害（如海啸、山体滑坡）下，评估整个西部电网的性能是极具挑战性的。没有单一的方法或工具足以解决这个问题。结合电力系统运行和分析、岩土工程、地震工程、测绘和地理空间分析以及人类专业知识的跨学科方法，需要理解这样一个大型电力系统的功率流分析的假设和复杂性。该项目将估算卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带地震的总损失和恢复时间，并为该地区的整体短期和长期经济效益提供最佳缓解途径。随着西海岸大地震的直接和间接总成本飙升至数十亿美元，对电力生命线的影响和缓解途径的任何估计都将为数百万居民和企业带来重大利益。本研究的成果将透过研究生课堂、线上专业及继续教育教学来传播。项目结果和更新也将通过在Cascadia生命线计划（CLiP）董事会、2022年IEEE电力和能源协会大会以及俄勒冈州STEM中心的报告与行业领导者进行讨论。这项研究的主要目的是了解CSZ地震如何影响西部电网故障的程度、分布和持续时间，作为地震烈度和可能发生的余震的函数；制定一个框架，用于识别关键网格位置和组件，这将有助于决策者和规划者，并广泛适用于美国的任何地震带；估计由于重大CSZ事件导致的预期初始负荷损失和负荷恢复时间；探讨补救行动计划（RAS）对电网性能和恢复的影响。为实现这些目标，建议开展多学科研究活动：(1)为西部电网的增强型大规模潮流模型创建规则和自动化；(2)建立增强模型中电气部件的易损性函数和恢复率；(3)通过对危险等级和电网情景的蒙特卡罗分析，提高对电网性能和临界点的理解，以提高弹性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

A large earthquake, such as a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake, with potential to trigger a devastating tsunami could destroy infrastructure and electrical power systems in communities along the west coast of the United States. Research is lacking on electrical grid performance in the context of an earthquake disaster. Estimating the performance of the entire western grid under the widespread damage of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and the hazards that follow (e.g., tsunami,landslides) is extremely challenging. No single method or tool is adequate to tackle this problem. An interdisciplinary approach combining power system operations and analysis, geotechnics, earthquake engineering, mapping, and geospatial analytics, along with human expertise, is required to understand assumptions and complications of the power flow analysis of such a large electrical system. This project will estimate the total damage and recovery time of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, and inform the best avenues for mitigation for the overall short and long term economic benefit of the region. As the total direct and indirect costs of a large earthquake for the west coast soar into the billions of dollars, any estimates of impact and avenues for mitigation for the electrical lifeline will have a significant benefit for millions of residents and businesses. Outcomes of this research will be disseminated through graduate classroom, online professional and continuing education instruction. Project results and updates will also be discussed with industry leaders via presentations to the Cascadia Lifelines Program (CLiP) board, the 2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society general meeting, and the Oregon STEM Hub.The primary objectives of the proposed research are to understand how CSZ earthquakes will impact the extent, distribution, and duration of the western electrical grid failure as a function of earthquake intensity and possible aftershocks; develop a framework for the identification of critical grid locations and components that will aid decision makers and planners, and also be broadly applicable to any seismic zone in the US; estimate expected initial load loss and load recovery time due to a major CSZ event; explore impacts of Remedial Action Schemes (RAS) on grid performance and recovery. The proposed multidisciplinary research activities to meet these objectives are: (1) creating rules and automation for an augmented large-scale electrical power flow model of the western electrical grid; (2) developing fragility functions and restoration rates for electrical components in the augmented model; and (3) improving understanding of grid performance and critical points for improved resilience via Monte Carlo analyses of hazard levels and grid scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.