Collaborative Research: Transparency and Misspecification in Structural Estimation

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Much economic research seeks to combine economic theory and statistical modeling to derive policy-relevant conclusions from data. The transparency of this process—whether the intended audience can understand the evidence behind the conclusions as well as the conclusionsthemselves—is crucial to the success of policy relevant research. This project will develop a framework for understanding the process through which the results were achieved, as well as the communication of scientific findings to a diverse audience, apply the framework to important problems in applied economics, and study how economists can reach more stable policy-relevant conclusions from data that does not change with minor changes in data or methodology. The research has three projects: a study of scientific communication, a definition and measurement of transparency, and a project that focuses on how to achieve transparency in economics research. The results of this research will lead to more efficient and reliable policy relevant economics research. It also will result in more trust in economic policy research as well as the development better policies.The project will study transparency in scientific research. The research consists of three projects: The first project will use economic theory and statistical decision theory to propose and develop a model of scientific communication and contrast its implications with those of a classical model of statistics. The second project---Transparency in Structural Estimation---provides a working definition of transparency for structural estimation and discusses approaches to achieving it. The third project titled “Instrument Selection and Sensitivity to Misspecification in Structural Models” will develop and illustrate the importance of instrument choice in determining the sensitivity of estimates of structural models to misspecification. The results of this research project does not only contribute to econometric theory and practice but also to improvement of policy and program evaluation. This research improves economic and policy decision making, hence strengthens the US economy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.