SBE-UKRI: Business Cycles, Uncertain Growth and the Distribution of Production

SBE-UKRI：商业周期、不确定增长和生产分配

• 批准号: 1949489
• 负责人: Julia Thomas
• 金额: $ 45万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1949489&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBE; UKRI; Business; Cycles; Uncertain

AbstractThe decade since the Great Recession has seen a lack of new business creation and slow economic growth. This project explores the interplay between these two phenomena using a model economy with rich differences across businesses. The model economy reproduces the long-run size and age distribution of firms in the U.S. economy and thus gives rise to a firm life cycle. New businesses are typically small and grow over time, so startups become more important in the economy as they mature. As a result, the effect on the overall economy from a decrease in the number of startups grows with time. The initial loss of production and employment is small, but the absence of new firms implies a long-term cost that is far larger than the initial loss. The project explores forces that may explain a persistent lack of startups. The results of the project will help researchers and policymakers better understand both the causes underlying the past decade of slow growth and how long-term reductions in the number of firms contribute to the slow recovery. The project investigates the slow GDP and investment growth over the past decade, relative to trend, alongside the persistent reduction in firm entry. The research explores possible forces driving large, long-lived changes in new business formation using a quantitative model with endogenous entry and exit. The model economy includes a distribution of firms that differ along several dimensions including their age, productivity, capital and debt. Changes in this distribution propagate exogenous shocks. Moreover, the model allows for countercyclical risk premia and thus large changes in firm value. As a result, it has the potential to reproduce persistent reductions in entry similar to those in the data. In this setting, the project explores the effect of persistent shocks to total factor productivity growth, increases in the uncertainty of future growth and shocks to firms’ cost of borrowing. The model economy serves as a laboratory to evaluate the sources of the slow economic recovery through the lens of firm entry, and is used to study the effect of such shocks both on the aggregate economy and on the distribution of production across firms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

【摘要】经济大衰退以来的十年里，新的商业创造不足，经济增长缓慢。本项目使用具有不同业务差异的模型经济来探索这两种现象之间的相互作用。模型经济再现了美国经济中企业的长期规模和年龄分布，从而产生了企业生命周期。新企业通常规模较小，而且会随着时间的推移而增长，因此，随着初创企业的成熟，它们在经济中变得越来越重要。因此，随着时间的推移，创业公司数量的减少对整体经济的影响会越来越大。最初的生产和就业损失很小，但缺乏新公司意味着长期成本远远大于最初的损失。该项目探索了可能解释创业公司持续缺乏的力量。该项目的结果将有助于研究人员和政策制定者更好地理解过去十年经济缓慢增长的原因，以及企业数量的长期减少是如何导致经济缓慢复苏的。该项目调查了过去十年相对于趋势的缓慢的GDP和投资增长，以及企业进入的持续减少。该研究利用一个具有内生进入和退出的定量模型，探索了推动新业务形成中大规模、长期变化的可能力量。模型经济包括公司的分布，这些公司在年龄、生产率、资本和债务等几个方面存在差异。这种分布的变化会传播外源冲击。此外，该模型允许反周期风险溢价，从而使公司价值发生巨大变化。因此，它有可能再现与数据中类似的条目持续减少的情况。在此背景下，该项目探讨了持续冲击对全要素生产率增长的影响、未来增长不确定性的增加以及冲击对企业借贷成本的影响。模型经济作为一个实验室，通过企业进入的视角来评估经济缓慢复苏的来源，并用于研究这种冲击对总体经济和企业间生产分配的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。